6×1 scale is more viable as a campaign theme than PEC in 2026, says expert

For political scientists, the end of the 6×1 scale should not come to fruition in 2026. Instead, the topic should be explored as part of the government’s re-election campaign during the election period.

As this is a shortened legislative year, the government will have six months to approve proposals and advance projects. The PEC against the 6×1 scale is divided into two texts: one paralyzed in a subcommittee in the Chamber, and the other in the Senate, approved by the Constitution and Justice Committee, which now awaits consideration in the plenary.

According to political scientist, political analyst Leopoldo Vieira, although the topic has 72% popular approval, given the economic complexity involved in reducing the scale of work, the issue should be considered as a left-wing political flag, rather than a priority for rapid approval in the legislative Houses.

“For the government, it may be more useful to keep the issue in the spotlight throughout the year, especially in the electoral cycle, projecting a vision of the future for the middle and popular classes”, says Vieira.

Fees

Another relevant point for the federal government in 2026 will be the decisions on the Selic rate by Copom.

On the 18th, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) praised the management of the Central Bank, in the hands of Gabriel Galípolo, and expected a drop in the Selic rate from 2026.

“I’m sure that Galípolo will provide a great service. I can smell that the interest rate will soon start to fall. I have 100% confidence in it”, stated the president.

For Vieira, the scenario of falling interest rates coinciding with the electoral process tends to reinforce the economic optimism of the electorate and favor Lula’s re-election.

“A sustained reduction in the Selic tends to alleviate credit, stimulate economic activity and strengthen this positive climate without compromising the flows of carry trade“, he states.

Pending projects

Lula’s third term focused on social programs and an economic agenda focusing on micro-entrepreneurs and benefits aimed at those earning more than three minimum wages per month — and the extension of benefits to other salary ranges could be a campaign theme in the following year.

Seeking to get closer to the middle class and new entrepreneurs, Lula is expected to focus on proposals to expand income tax exemption and raise the collection ceiling for micro-entrepreneurs registered with MEI, but executing projects in 2026 will be an arduous task.

Vieira highlights that, to understand the government’s new plans in relation to the economy, it is necessary to see that the country only has two possible paths in this final stretch of the mandate: moving towards a new fiscal pact or facing the risk of a political crisis.

“The difference in relation to 2016 is that the government today has a significant backing of popularity and would not risk this in favor of a harsh fiscal adjustment, as mentioned with the ‘shared fiscal adjustment’ at the end of 2024”, he highlights.

Regarding the increase in the ceiling for micro-entrepreneurs, a complementary bill approved by the Social Affairs Committee in October and which is now awaiting a public hearing, Vieira highlights that, if the proposal finds room to advance in 2026, it could represent a risk to the current government: if the increase in the gross annual revenue limit is accompanied by a proportional increase in taxation, the voter’s “anti-system” sentiment could once again gain prominence.