JGP estimates that one third of the stock price already incorporates’ Trade Tarcísio ”2026

Fábio Fonseca, JGP Asset Management funds co-industry, says that today the asymmetry is very positive in the Brazilian stock market. The reason for this would be linked to a favorable result for the financial market in next year’s presidential elections.

“One point we can no longer ignore is the electoral discussion. It is already in the price of stock. It has a third of Tarcisio’s probability (from Freitas) is already in the price,” he says, emphasizing that it is calculated by the company.

Even without confirming any intention of running for the presidency publicly, in 2026, the São Paulo government has been standing out in election polls for the next race to the Plateau.

Read more: Actions: JGP sees improvement of allocation going forward, after a difficult period

Research Compiled

“We come to a point that this has to be taken into consideration,” he says. Fonseca participated this Wednesday (25) of XP Capital Introduction, in São Paulo (SP), with the theme “The risk of not having a scholarship in the next Bull Market”.

According to compiled research by JGP, the probability of reelection of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is “low or very challenging”.

According to the electoral scenario raised by the company, historically, the 40% approval mark was an important indicator of the possibility of victory – today, however, the current president has only 26.5% approval by the consolidated research, which would be a hindrance to his reelection.

“The electoral dynamics, along with the results of companies and the level in the multiples of NTN-B (Treasury Title), which are the basis of everything, I see an extremely favorable asymmetry (for actions),” says the manager.

Fábio Fonseca points to an electoral scenario for next year, with high probability of positive results for the financial market.

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