‘Significant rrisco of Iran has an atomic bomb,’ says Iranian analyst

According to Javed Ali, professor of counterterrorism at the University of Michigan and scholar of the Iranian nuclear program for 30 years, the entry of Iran in the treaty was a strategy of the then leader of the country, Xá Reza Pahlavi, who had nuclear ambitions for the country. With the Islamic Revolution, the interest of the government has deepened, but the Ayatollah regime saw interesting opportunities for its purposes.

The treaty, in fact, was beneficial to Iran at various levels. By signing it they could say, ‘We are part of this international community, let’s follow all these rules and show that the discourse we are dangerous is false.’ At the same time, they explored loopholes in these rules to acquire technology, to get involved in research and get closer to that goal of one day to have nuclear weapons
Javed Ali, to Facto News

Not that Iranians have not been threatened to withdraw from the agreement. This has been an argument used by Ayatollah as pressure against sanctions and in negotiations with western powers. But, according to Dalzikova, a proliferation and nuclear policy researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, “these threats have never been as believable” as after the last Israeli attacks.

According to the Treaty’s text, a Member State has the right to withdraw from it “if you decide that extraordinary events, related to the object of this treaty, endanger the supreme interests of your country.” For Dolzikova, according to a recently written article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “Tehran could point out the attacks on their nuclear facilities – but also the broader attacks on their military assets, security leadership and critical infrastructure – such as meeting the criteria for withdrawal.”

If that happened, Iran would be following in the steps of the only other country to have already done such a movement: North Korea.

In the case of North Koreans, the departure of the agreement was first considered in 1993, but only realized in 2003. In 2006, the country took its first test with nuclear weapons. Petroleum producer and strategically positioned in global geopolitics, such a movement from Iran would have much more serious implications than the act of North Korea.