Centrão wanting to pull the brakes on Lula
Quaest released its research today, proving in numbers what we were saying here about Lula’s positive wave. Lula’s approval rating is technically tied with disapproval: 48% to 49%. You have to remember that, in May (practically the other day), the rate of people who disapproved of the Lula government was 17 points higher than the approval rate. So the series of good news actually had a huge effect on Lula’s image (Sidônio fought bravely).
It was Trump’s tariff (a gift from Dudu Bolsonaro to Lula), it was the PCC in Faria Lima (which the federal government started beating the drum that is fighting crime), there were good numbers in the economy, food inflation apparently controlled, it was the income tax exemption for the poorest. It’s a lot of good news for just one government.
But, however, however, however, like any good wave, it arrives and can also go away quickly. And, looking at the Quaest research, there is something that should raise an important alert. One of the points raised by Felipe Nunes, in his analysis of the numbers, is the following:
Expectations about the measure are very high, even exaggerated: 41% of Brazilians believe that the income reform will bring a significant improvement to their finances. Expectation that exceeds the real numbers presented by the Revenue
So, you’ve seen: when next year arrives and the Brazilian realizes that it was good, but not as good as he thought it would be, it could go bad. And that’s why Centrão is trying to make it as difficult as possible for the government to have surplus in the budget (like IOF money) to make last-minute packages of kindness.
