Without dosimetry and with a divided right, Centrão takes its name from the Planalto

The division between the right-wing names closest to Jair Bolsonaro and those aligned with Centrão makes it difficult for the former president to announce the group’s candidate in 2026 and imposes more barriers to the already troubled progress of the project to reduce sentences for those involved in anti-democratic acts.

To speed up the choice of the candidate who will face President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva next year, the Centrão party leadership has been demanding a “turn of the page”. Thus, they argue that the dosimetry text, which could benefit Bolsonaro, be voted on quickly.

The understanding of this group is that, until the reduction of sentences is voted on, Bolsonaro supporters will use the banner of amnesty to indefinitely postpone support for 2026 and continue insisting on Bolsonaro as a candidate, even if he is ineligible.

União Brasil and PP, who formed a federation, are leading the pressure for Bolsonaro to support the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), for the Presidency before the end of the year. If Tarcísio resists being a candidate, the group’s preference is for the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Júnior (PSD).

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The articulation also includes the participation of the national commands of Republicans and PSD. On Thursday, the president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, secretary of Institutional Relations of São Paulo, said that Tarcísio is “the icing on the cake of political renewal”.

— The PSD has a direction. We have two pre-candidates for the Presidency: Ratinho Júnior and Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul). If Tarcísio is a candidate, we will walk with him — he said at an event with businesspeople.

The objective of this Centrão group is to show that the unrestricted pardon for those involved in undemocratic acts has no support in Congress and to close any loophole so that the group closest to Bolsonaro continues to pressure him to avoid supporting a name. At the same time, they are trying to give a nod to the former president with a reduction in sentences and even an agreement that could prevent him from being imprisoned in a closed regime.

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‘It depends on Bolsonaro’

The assessment is that the project would need to be approved by the end of the year. Otherwise, Centrão parties outline a pessimistic scenario in which the right will start 2026 disorganized and at a disadvantage in the dispute against Lula, who has regained his popularity, as the Quaest survey showed at the beginning of the month.

— It just depends on Bolsonaro (the right-wing unit for 2026). Dosimetry is a gesture we are making to pacify — said deputy Claudio Cajado (PP-BA), one of the vice-presidents of the PP.

Despite the attempted agreement, the sentence reduction project is stuck. Leaders of the Chamber say that the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), an ally of the government, has signaled against the text created by the deputies and that there would be no point in approving the project so that it would not advance in the other House, as happened in the Blindagem PEC, which created the need for Congressional approval to prosecute deputies.

Even so, those involved in the articulations insist on an agreement so that the dosimetry project is approved and seek a dialogue with the Senate and the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to move forward with the text.

Even with the Bolsonarists’ speech that they only accept broad amnesty, the rapporteur, deputy Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade-SP), has spoken with the opposition and hopes to approve a version focused on reducing sentences with the support of Bolsonarists.

— We are talking and seeing how to better articulate the vote — said Paulinho, setting the tone for the difficulty of getting the agenda underway.

Given the tension between deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) and names from Centrão, the group of party presidents has now ruled out any agreement that includes the former president’s son 03 as a candidate, be it president or vice president.

On the other hand, although they show a preference for Tarcísio or Ratinho, members of the right are willing to have other names evaluated for the ticket, such as former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro or senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), but preferably for vice president.

The divisive scenario was accentuated by Eduardo’s public criticism of right-wing representatives who waved at the governors of São Paulo and Paraná. In recent days, the deputy has released messages against the president of the PP, Ciro Nogueira, and senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), who ignored the parliamentarian as a viable name for 2026.

— I was always in favor of a single candidacy in the first round, but Caiado (governor of Goiás, pre-candidate) is against it. I like Tarcísio’s name, but he is a candidate who says he is not a candidate. If Bolsonaro said: “I’m together”, I think Tarcísio would face that, but with Eduardo shooting in the USA, it creates instability — said deputy Fábio Schiochet (SC), member of the Union’s national directory.

While there is no agreement, Centrão is home to government wings, which the leaders are trying to change. Among them are the ministers of Sport, André Fufuca (PP), and Tourism, Celso Sabino (União).