US nuclear test could spark arms race, experts warn

The use of nuclear weapons for deterrence, something common during the Cold War, gained prominence again with the war in Ukraine, after Russia repeatedly threatened both the US and Europe.

In 1996, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) banned nuclear explosions by all countries, everywhere. It was signed by Russia in 1996 and ratified in 2000. The United States signed the treaty in 1996 but has not ratified it. In 2023, Putin formally revoked Russia’s ratification of the CTBT, aligning his country with the United States’ situation.

Why restart nuclear tests?

Trump’s statement does not make clear the objective of restarting nuclear weapons tests and only says that this would occur due to other countries’ testing programs. The two reasons for carrying out a nuclear test would be to collect information about the weapon being tested or to send a signal to other countries.

Nuclear nonproliferation experts have warned that new U.S. tests could potentially serve as a trigger for other nuclear powers to begin their own large-scale tests.

“Restarting the US nuclear testing program could be one of the Trump administration’s most consequential policy actions – a US test could set off a runaway chain of events, with other countries possibly responding with their own nuclear tests, destabilizing global security and accelerating a new arms race,” experts warned in a February article in the journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.