Election year imposes brakes on Congress and redesigns priorities for 2026

With the electoral race gaining weight, Congress leaders are already signaling that high-stress issues tend to be postponed after the end-of-year recess and, in many cases, for the second half of the year, when campaigns enter “street” mode and the plenary is empty.

Congress reaches 2026 with a line of proposals that mix a security agenda, institutional clashes and fiscal disputes. In practice, the electoral calendar tends to reduce the appetite for controversial votes, while opening space for projects with regional appeal, low political risk and more immediate effects.

The first movement already appeared at the end of 2025. The Chamber decided to leave the vote on the Public Security PEC and the Senate changes to the Antifaction PL until 2026, after an agreement between government and opposition leaders.

The assessment was that there was no political environment to face resistance from governors, federative disagreements and disputes with the Judiciary on the eve of a year of campaigning.

What is “easier” to advance

If 2026 tends to bring confrontational agendas, it tends to favor consensus proposals and mandatory votes for the functioning of the public machine. This is the case of budget items and projects that unlock the execution of policies, transfers and programs with local impact, which gain traction when parliamentarians seek deliveries for their bases.

This group also includes more technical regulatory measures, with less potential for mobilization in the networks, as well as “sliced” projects, in which the rapporteur separates consensual points and pushes what is explosive to a later stage. In an election year, this type of strategy becomes a tool to produce results without starting a big fight.

End of scale 6×1 enters the radar

If some agendas get stuck due to excessive conflict, others start to be seen as an electoral opportunity. This is the case of the end of the 6×1 work schedule, which the PT intends to transform into one of its main legislative banners in 2026.

Although the debate has progressed with difficulty so far, leaders from the center believe that the electoral scenario could unlock the proposal. The perception is that deputies and senators would have difficulty positioning themselves against a measure with a strong social appeal, especially if it is discussed at the height of the campaign.

Today, the main front of discussion is in the Chamber’s Work Committee, where PL 67/25 is being processed, reported by Leo Prates (PDT-BA). The text foresees a reduction in working hours to 40 hours a week from 2028 and serves as a basis for other projects included. There is still disagreement over the final format.

The PT prefers to move forward through an ordinary bill, while part of Congress discusses alternatives that soften the immediate impact on the productive sector.

Messiah Sabbath

Another explicit decision to postpone involves the appointment of Jorge Messias to the Federal Supreme Court. The president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), canceled the planned calendar after Palácio do Planalto did not send the formal message authorizing the start of processing the nomination.

The postponement opens space for Messias to expand articulations and seek support among senators, in a scenario in which his approval is not yet considered guaranteed.

At the same time, the episode exposed noise in the relationship between Planalto and the Senate. Alcolumbre publicly criticized the lack of formal communication of the nomination, a bureaucratic step without which the Senate cannot deliberate on the hearing.

Budget becomes a priority

If sensitive issues are left for later, the 2026 Budget has become an immediate priority. Government and Congress rush to approve the Budget Guidelines Law and the Annual Budget Law before the recess, scheduled for December 23rd. Without these votes, the entire financial program for next year will be paralyzed.

The impasse involves electoral and fiscal interests. On the one hand, the economic team defends the cut of tax benefits to increase revenue and support the fiscal framework.

On the other hand, Congress resists the removal of incentives that affect sectors with strong lobbying and is pressing for more resources for parliamentary amendments and for the 2026 electoral fund, estimated at around R$4.9 billion.

The predominant reading is that postponing the vote on the Budget would be more politically costly than reaching a fragile agreement now. If the LOA is not approved, the release of amendments would be blocked at the beginning of 2026, creating an immediate focus of crisis between the Executive and Legislative branches in the middle of an election year.

Impeachment law in line

Another sensitive topic pushed to 2026 is the project that reformulates the impeachment law. The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee decided to postpone the vote on PL 1,388/2023 after a request from the rapporteur, senator Weverton Rocha (PDT-MA), who defended more time to listen to interested parties and mature the text.

The proposal gained traction in the context of the clash between the Senate and the STF, following a decision by Minister Gilmar Mendes that restricted the possibility of denouncing Court ministers for crimes of responsibility.

Even with the judge’s subsequent retreat, the climate of institutional tension led to the postponement. The assessment was that taking the issue to the plenary in the middle of the electoral campaign would increase the risk of political wear and tear.

Electoral calculation

The set of these decisions reinforces a historical pattern. In election years, Congress tends to function as a political filter. While projects with a high potential for conflict or attrition are pushed to a later date, others gain space — budget agendas, regional deliveries and themes with popular appeal.

In 2026, this behavior should be even more evident. With campaigns on the streets and social networks amplifying each vote, the legislative agenda tends to be less ideological and more pragmatic, guided by electoral calculation and the search for the lowest possible political cost.