Is Iran Trump’s new target? Weak currency, energy shortages and drought spark protests

A day before US troops captured Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump threatened the Iranian government as protests in the country continued amid worsening economic conditions.

Given the surprise success of the weekend operation in South America and the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, speculation is growing that Trump may turn his attention to the Middle East.

On Friday, he warned on social media that if Iran kills peaceful protesters, “the United States of America will come to your rescue. We are ready to act.” Days earlier, Trump threatened to “take down Iran” if the country tried to rebuild its nuclear program or expand its ballistic missile program.

On Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the Venezuela operation was a warning to other US adversaries who doubt Trump.

“When he says he’s going to do something, when he says he’s going to solve a problem, he means it,” he told reporters.

Protests among traders in Tehran began late last month after Iran’s currency plunged further, raising costs for traders selling imported goods. Others joined the protests, which led the regime to crack down, with reports of deaths.

Iran in crisis

The protests occur amid multiple crises that are shaking the economy. The currency has lost 60% of its value since June, when Iran and Israel fought a 12-day war, ended with American bombing.

This worsened inflation, which reached 64% for food products in October, according to the World Bank.

At the same time, Iran suffers from chronic energy shortages. Despite vast oil and gas reserves, fuel and electricity need to be rationed due to lack of investment, aging infrastructure, subsidies, corruption and sanctions.

This causes rotating blackouts during the summer, when the use of air conditioning increases demand for electricity. In winter, the supply of natural gas for heating is also interrupted.

The energy crisis has led Iran to pursue solar energy, but the weak currency makes importing the necessary technology even more expensive.

Meanwhile, the country is facing the worst drought in at least 40 years. A month ago, the main reservoirs supplying Tehran were at only about 11% capacity. The situation was so serious that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian even suggested that the population might need to evacuate the capital.

Although there has been some rain since then, the overall situation has barely improved, and precipitation is only 5% of what is considered a normal autumn. The water supply was interrupted in some neighborhoods in Tehran.

Water also carries political risks, as previous shortages have sparked protests, and any restrictions on agricultural use could further worsen food inflation.

Like the energy crisis, the water crisis has multiple causes, including decades of mismanagement and over-extraction, leaks, corruption and climate change.

With multiple calamities unfolding simultaneously in Iran, and Trump’s appetite for foreign intervention expanding beyond Venezuela, observers see growing risks for the Islamic Republic. Maduro is also a close ally of Iran, which condemned his capture and imprisonment by the US.

“If Trump falls for the idea of ​​’surgical’ regime change, or gives (Benjamin) Netanyahu the US go-ahead for similar actions, it’s hard not to see how this gives impetus to the many actors pushing for a renewed war with Iran,” Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, told Al Jazeera.