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Paraná Pesquisas: Lula leads the 1st round, but draws against Flávio or Tarcísio in the 2nd

BySimon Rousseau Posted onJanuary 29, 2026 7:30 amJanuary 29, 2026 7:31 am
Paraná Pesquisas: Lula leads the 1st round, but draws against Flávio or Tarcísio in the 2nd

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the first round against all opponents, but Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) overtake the PT member by technical draw in the 2nd round. This is what reveals a survey released by Paraná Pesquisas this Thursday (29).

In the 1st round scenario against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula wins 39.8% of voting intentions, while the senator has 33.1%. In a scenario against the governor of São Paulo, the president records 40.7% compared to 27.5% for Tarcísio.

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In a possible second round, Lula reaches 44.8% against Flávio’s 42.2%, but the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro reaches a technical draw due to the margin of error. The scenario is similar with Tarcísio, who totals 42.5% compared to 43.9% for the PT member.

Opportunity with security!

In the projection, the only candidate promptly defeated by Lula in a possible 2nd round is the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD).

See the 1st round scenarios:

1st scenario:

  • Lula (PT): 39.8%
  • Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 33.1%
  • Ratinho Junior (PSD): 6.5%
  • Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3.7%
  • Romeu Zema (New): 2.8%
  • Renan Santos (Mission): 1.5%
  • Aldo Rebelo (DC): 1.1%
  • Don’t know/Didn’t say: 4.7%
  • None / Blank / Null: 6.8%

2nd scenario:

  • Lula (PT): 40.7%
  • Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 27.5%
  • Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6.6%
  • Romeu Zema (New): 4.4%
  • Renan Santos (Mission): 2%
  • Aldo Rebelo (DC): 1.4%
  • Don’t know/Didn’t say: 6.6%
  • None / Blank / Null: 10.8%

Simon Rousseau
Simon Rousseau

Hello, I'm Simon, a 39-year-old cinema enthusiast. With a passion for storytelling through film, I explore various genres and cultures within the cinematic universe. Join me on my journey as I share insights, reviews, and the magic of movies!

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