End of the 6×1 scale advances and puts fiscal cost at the center of the election

The proposed amendment to the Constitution that abolishes the 6×1 scale left the rhetorical field and officially entered the Chamber’s calendar. The text was forwarded to the Constitution and Justice Committee, with a vote expected in the first half of the year. The movement was analyzed in the program Risk Map this Friday (13), which highlighted the electoral potential of the agenda and the fiscal risks embedded in the debate.

For the government, the change in working hours can act as a rallying cry, especially in a pre-election year. “There is an assessment within the government, within the PT, that the engagement that was provoked by the discussion of income tax and the taxation of banks, billionaires and bets, last year, was responsible for the momentum that President Lula had in the popularity polls”, stated political analyst Paulo Gama.

According to him, the expectation is to repeat the effect. “There is an expectation that this discussion of the end of the 6 x 1 scale could do the same, could have the same effect, already dazzling the electoral calendar.”

The problem is that the account is not neutral. Business sectors have already started to defend compensatory measures, such as the resumption of payroll tax relief or a staggered transition.

In the reading made in the program, the government recognizes the sensitivity of the topic, especially among small companies. “The government understands the risk of having this discussion, especially in small companies, with up to nine employees, but is not willing to offer any type of compensation in terms of resources, in terms of exemption,” said Gama.

The advancement of the proposal, however, depends on the pace imposed by the Chamber. “Hugo Motta sent the proposal to the CCJ, but he remains in possession of the calendar,” said the analyst. After admissibility, the text would still need to go through a special committee before going to the plenary, which could lengthen the process.

“Obviously, when there is political will, all of this can be skipped, shortcuts can be built”, pondered Gama. Still, he highlighted that there are regulatory steps capable of slowing down or accelerating the discussion, depending on the political articulation.

The debate over the 6×1 scale illustrates a broader pattern. The economic agenda begins to be pressured by electoral priorities, while Congress seeks to extract political capital from issues with greater social appeal.

If the discussion evolves with compensations that increase waivers or pressure spending, the fiscal risk enters the account. If the proposal is withheld or postponed, the government loses a relevant political showcase. In any case, the progress of the PEC will be observed not only as a labor issue, but as a relevant variable for investors’ mood in the coming months.

The Risk Map, the new policy program for InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.