Lula has a technical draw against Flávio and Ratinho in the 2nd round, says Real Time Big Data

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads all first round scenarios, but appears technically tied against senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and with the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD), in a possible second round dispute in the dispute for Palácio do Planalto. This is what the research released by the Real Time Big Data Institute reveals, released this Tuesday (3).

In a possible dispute against Flávio, Lula has 42% of voting intentions, while the senator scores 41%. With a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, the two candidates remain technically tied.

Check it out:

• Lula (PT) — 42%
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) — 41%
• Null/Blank — 10%
• NS/NR — 7%

The PT member is also technically tied with Ratinho Jr. In this scenario, Lula obtains 43% of voting intentions, compared to 39% for the current governor of Paraná. Blanks and nulls account for 11%, while another 7% did not know or did not respond.

Check it out:

• Lula (PT) — 43%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD) — 39%
• Null/Blank — 11%
• NS/NR — 7%

Lula would beat all other candidates in second round scenarios projected by the research. Check out the results:

Lula x Aldo Rebelo

• Lula (PT) — 51%
• Aldo Rebelo (DC) — 19%
• Null/Blank — 14%
• NS/NR — 16%

Lula x Eduardo Leite

• Lula (PT) — 46%
• Eduardo Leite (PSD) — 35%
• Null/Blank — 12%
• NS/NR — 7%

Lula x Renan Santos

• Lula (PT) — 51%
• Renas Santos (Mission) — 18%
• Null/Blank — 15%
• NS/NR — 16%

Lula x Romeo Zema

• Lula (PT) — 44%
• Romeu Zema (New) — 35%
• Null/Blank — 13%
• NS/NR — 8%

Lula x Ronaldo Caiado

• Lula (PT) — 45%
• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) — 36%
• Null/Blank — 12%
• NS/NR — 7%

The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 people, between February 28 and March 2, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-09353/2026.