Flávio consolidates and technically draws with Lula in the 2nd round, says Datafolha

The pre-candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) has consolidated himself as the main name in the field opposing that of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in this year’s presidential race and has already resulted in a technical tie in a possible second round, according to a new Datafolha survey released this Saturday, March 7 — the first since Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son was launched as a candidate.

In the scenarios tested by the survey, published by the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, Lula appears with 46% of voting intentions, while the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro has 43%.

The survey was carried out between Tuesday and Thursday this week and interviewed 2,004 people in 137 cities. The margin of error is two percentage points.

In first round simulations, Flávio’s advance is also noticeable. In the scenario currently considered most likely by the institute, the current president has 38% of voting intentions, against 32% for the senator. Next come the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), with 7%, and the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 4%. Renan Santos (Missão) scores 3%, and Aldo Rebelo (DC), 2%. Another 11% of those interviewed say they reject all candidates, and 3% say they don’t know who to vote for.

Flávio’s consolidation also appears in the spontaneous voting intention, when the institute does not present a list of names to the interviewee. The senator had not been mentioned in the previous round, in December, and now appears with 12%. Lula fluctuated from 24% to 25% in this format, while former president Jair Bolsonaro, ineligible, is mentioned by 3% of voters.

According to Datafolha, five first-round and seven second-round scenarios were tested. Lula remains ahead in all of them, but with an advantage on a downward trajectory. In the initial simulations of the first round, the PT member registers 38% or 39% of preference, depending on the composition of the group.

In a scenario considered unlikely, in which the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), appears as the party’s candidate, he scores 21%, against 33% for Flávio.

On the opposing side, the performance of the senator from Rio de Janeiro stabilizes at a competitive level with the president. In simulations in which he faces Lula in the first round, Flávio varies from 32% to 34%. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), still included in some scenarios, drops to 21%, after having been, for months, the center’s favorite to lead the field on the right.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s entry into the election was initially received with skepticism in Brasília, partly due to the preference of centrão leaders for Tarcísio. The current numbers, however, indicate that the pre-candidacy was established and began to organize the Bolsonarist camp around the senator.

On the center-right, PSD president Gilberto Kassab’s strategy of launching three names and, later on, unifying them around a single candidate has not yet shown enough strength to threaten polarization. Ratinho Jr. is the best positioned among the party’s candidates — capable of garnering 7% of the votes against 38% for Lula and 32% for Flávio in a potential 1st round — but appears far from the leaders. Still, according to Datafolha, he is doing better than governors Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO) and Eduardo Leite (PSDB-RS), also tested in some scenarios.

In the second round, the distance between Lula and Flávio shrank from 15 points in December to 3 points now, within the margin of error. In another second round scenario, Lula also faces Ratinho Jr. and wins by 45% to 41%, in a situation considered stable by the institute.

The electorate profile of the two leaders reproduces, to a large extent, the sharp polarization observed since 2018. In the most likely scenario, with Lula and Flávio in the first round, the president maintains a relatively homogeneous performance among the main socioeconomic strata, with more significant advantages among northeasterners, Catholics, voters with less education and lower income. Among those who earn up to 2 minimum wages, Lula reaches 42%, a segment whose margin of error is three percentage points.

Flávio, in turn, inherits his father’s electoral map. The senator stands out among evangelicals, residents of the South and the North and Central-West regions. Its best mark, 48%, appears precisely among the 28% of evangelical voters in the sample, a group with a margin of error of four percentage points.

Polarization gains strength

The polarization is reinforced when observing the rejection data. Lula, who is on track to complete almost three terms in charge of the country, is the pre-candidate with the highest rate: 46% of those interviewed say they would not vote for him under any circumstances. Flávio appears soon after, rejected by 45% of voters.

Both are also widely known by the population. Only 1% of those interviewed say they have never heard of Lula, and 7% say they do not know the senator — a situation that contrasts with that of Ratinho Jr., who combines low rejection, at 19%, with a high level of ignorance: 38% of voters still do not know who he is.

The political environment in which these numbers arise is described by leaders and analysts as unfavorable to the government. The scandal involving Banco Master, although so far it has not directly reached the core of Planalto, feeds the perception of corruption associated with the PT administration, which tends to be capitalized by the Bolsonarist camp.