Analysis: Perception of the Master case falls on the STF and spares Lula in the polls
The political crisis triggered by the Banco Master case has not, to date, produced any measurable strain on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the electoral polls. On the contrary: the most recent data from the Meio/Ideia survey suggests stability in the government’s approval indicators and in the presidential contest, even with the topic dominating the political debate in recent weeks.
The main reason seems to be in the way the episode is perceived by voters. Among those who claim to know the case, 35% associate the scandal with the Federal Supreme Court (STF), according to the survey released this Wednesday (11). The federal government appears well behind in this association. Only 21% say they link the episode to the Executive, while 18% link it to Congress. Another 26% say that the case involves all three Powers simultaneously.
This pattern of perception helps to explain why the topic, despite being intense in the political and institutional debate in Brasília, did not translate into a drop in the president’s indicators.
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Research shows a slight increase in positive evaluation, while disapproval of the way of governing and lack of trust in the president remain in the majority
Stability in approval rates
The survey numbers show that the government’s assessment practically did not change in relation to the previous survey. The way Lula conducts his third term is disapproved by 50.5% of those interviewed, while 47.2% say they approve of his performance.
In comparison with the previous round, there were small fluctuations: approval rose 0.6 percentage points and disapproval fell 0.9 points. The variations are within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, indicating stability in the general picture.
The details of the government’s assessment reinforce this scenario. Among those interviewed, 12% classify management as excellent and 22.6% as good. Another 18.3% consider the performance to be average. Negative evaluations total 45.3%, with 16.3% defining the government as bad and 29% as terrible.
The portrait shows a divided country, but without signs of significant deterioration in the president’s image.
Electoral dispute remains competitive
The same pattern appears in voting simulations for the 2026 presidential election. Lula appears with 40% of voting intentions in all first round scenarios tested by the Meio/Ideia survey.
The main opponents, however, remain close. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) records between 35% and 36% in the simulations, while the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), reaches around 36% when included in the dispute.
Proximity indicates a competitive dispute, but without structural change in the balance of forces.
In the second round, the survey points to tight scenarios. Lula appears with 47% against 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro and with 46% against 45% for Tarcísio de Freitas. In both cases, it is a technical draw within the margin of error.
The importance of political narrative
The data suggests that the Banco Master case has not yet managed to become an electoral liability for the president, as is trying to pursue the narrative adopted by the opposition. Part of this may be related to the way the controversy was framed in public debate.
By being mostly perceived as an episode linked to the STF, the scandal ends up shifting the focus of political responsibility to another institution. This reduces the potential for direct contamination of the federal government’s image.
Furthermore, the division of responses — with 26% pointing out that the case simultaneously involves the STF, Executive and Congress — indicates that a relevant portion of the electorate interprets the episode as part of a broader institutional conflict in Brasília, and not as a problem concentrated in a single political actor.
This does not mean that the episode is over from a political point of view. Institutional scandals tend to produce gradual effects, which depend on the continuity of the news, new developments and the ability of different political actors to construct narratives capable of mobilizing the electorate.
For now, however, data from the Meio/Ideia survey indicate that the Banco Master case has not yet changed the balance of the presidential dispute nor the government’s approval ratings.
