Lula ties with Flávio, Caiado and Zema in the 2nd round, says RealTime Big Data survey

RealTime Big Data research released this Tuesday, 5th, shows president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) technically tied with different possible opponents in simulations of the second round of the presidential election. In the scenario against senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears numerically ahead, with 44%, compared to 43% for the PT member.

Between March and May, Flávio rose from 41% to 44% in voting intentions, while Lula varied from 42% to 43%. As a result, the two remain technically tied, within the margin of error. The survey also shows that 7% of those interviewed said they would vote blank or null, while 6% did not know or did not respond.

The survey interviewed 2,000 voters across the country between May 2nd and 4th, 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-03627/2026.

According to the institute, the current president also appears technically tied with the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), by 43% to 42%, and with the former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), by 43% to 39%, in this case within the limit of the margin of error. The percentage of blank and invalid votes ranges from 9% to 11%, while those who did not know or did not respond range between 6% and 7%.

Included for the first time in the survey, former minister Ciro Gomes (PSDB) manages to match Lula in the second round, both with 43% of voting intentions. In this simulation, 8% of those interviewed stated that they would vote blank or null, while 6% did not know or did not respond. After an invitation from Aécio Neves (PSDB), Ciro stated that he will decide by the first fortnight of this month whether he will run for the Presidency of the Republic or the government of Ceará.

First round

In the scenario without Ciro Gomes, President Lula leads with 40% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 34%. Following are Caiado, with 5%; Zema, with 4%; the leader of the Missão party, Renan Santos, with 3%; and Augusto Cury (Avante), Aldo Rebelo (DC) and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), all with 1%. Blanks and nulls total 6%, and 5% did not know or did not respond.

When Ciro is included in the dispute, Lula registers 38%, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 33%. Caiado, Ciro and Zema scored 4% each, followed by Renan Santos, with 3%. Cury, Aldo Rebelo and Cabo Daciolo have 1% each. Blanks and nulls total 6%, and 5% did not know or did not respond.

Lula performs better among women, voters over 60, people with an income of up to two minimum wages, Catholics and residents of the Northeast. Flávio, in turn, records his best ratings among evangelicals, voters in the South region and people with incomes above five minimum wages.

Rejection

President Lula appears as the name most rejected by voters interviewed, with 44%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 41%. At a lower level, Ciro (5%), Zema (4%), Caiado (2%) and Cabo Daciolo (2%) appear.