Iran assures that the agreement with the US has seven steps: reopening of Hormuz and ending the naval blockade

IN 30 SECONDS

What has happened? The spokesman for Iranian diplomacy, Esmaeil Baghaeistates that a draft is circulating to close the war and that the round mediated by Qatar revolved around the seven-step plan presented in September: reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the naval blockade. Washington does not confirm it.
Who is behind? Tehranhe State Department and Qatar as mediator. The existence of the draft was reported by Reuters citing an official informed of the conversations.
What impact does it have? Hormuz channels around a fifth of the oil traded in the world and close to a third of liquefied natural gas. For Spain, the channel is not commercial but price: barrel, fuel and electricity bill.

Iran maintains that a draft is circulating to end the war with the US and that its seven-step plan would open Hormuz.

The spokesman for Iranian diplomacy, Esmaeil Baghaeimaintains that the round of talks mediated by Qatar held on Sunday revolved around the proposal that Tehran put on the table in September: a document articulated in seven phases whose axis is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the naval blockade that Washington remains on the Iranian coast.

Full details have not been released. Neither Tehran has not published them nor has the American side commented on them. What Baghaei has said is that the Iranian demands are ‘reasonable and logical’ and that There will be no final agreement while the naval blockade remains in place.

The fine print remains under lock and key.

The talks did not break down. Iranian negotiators left the table on Sunday, but that departure was not read as a break: according to Reuters, which cites an official briefed on the deliberations, a draft exists and a follow-up meeting is possible. That version does not come from any chancellery.

Qatar acts as mediator and has not published a balance sheet. The State Department has neither confirmed nor denied the contents of the document, and neither has the White House. In files like this, the speaking party is usually the one who needs the draft to exist.

A naval blockade is not lifted with a statement: it is lifted when Washington obtains something it can present at home as a victory.

Baghaei was explicit in the sequence: first the end of naval interception and respect for the demands of Tehranthen the rest. Translated into the language of negotiation, Iran wants Washington to take the first step. It is the classic condition of those who negotiate with less haste and more need for gesture.

Nobody shows their cards here.

Washington Logic

Before looking at Madrid, it is advisable to understand what the blockade solves for Washington. The American Navy does not keep a strip of sea closed for pleasure: the interdiction serves to strangle Iranian crude oil exports, put pressure on nuclear verification and preserve the initiative without landing a single soldier. Bombing is expensive. Block, no. And in a country that has been debating for two decades whether to enter another war in the Middle East, The blockade is the most reversible tool and the least costly in political terms.

The coalition that supports that logic is recognizable. Gulf partners want Iranian crude off the market, but also the strait open. The falcons of Republican Party in Congress they require verification prior to any relief. And the electorate that led to donald trump The White House did not vote for a long war. Hence the appeal of the seven-step plan: yes Tehran accepts a verifiable sequence and the opening of Hormuz becomes a bargaining chip, the result can be sold as peace with conditions. It’s happened before. In 1987, Operation Earnest Will—the reflagging of Kuwaiti tankers under the American flag during the Tanker War—was presented as protection of commercial traffic, not intervention. Trump I did the opposite in 2018: left the nuclear agreement and opted for maximum pressure. Now that pressure is what is negotiated, not what is applied.

Spain is not on the table and its interest is another: the price. The country imports practically all the crude oil it consumes and buys little directly in the Gulf, so Hormuz does not hit it through commercial means but through Brent. A barrel that cools after an agreement makes gasoline and diesel cheaper and, with one or two quarters of delay, the energy component of the CPI. A barrel that is heated does the opposite and ends up in the shopping basket. The most exposed listed companies are Repsol and moevewhich set the value of their refineries on the reference crude oil and see their margins move, and IAGwith kerosene among its highest costs. Gas is the other channel: Qatari LNG leaves through Hormuz and Spain has the largest regasification capacity in Europe, with plants in Barcelona, Sagunto, Cartagena, Huelva and Bilbao that also supply France and Italy.

The markets have been discounting détente for weeks and Brent has not escalated as in other Strait crises, which reduces the margin of surprise if the draft falls. The next window is the follow-up meeting that Reuters considers possible and which does not yet have a public date. The unknown is the same as always: what part of the plan has already been agreed upon and what part is just a starting position. The small print remains. And if Hormuz opens, it will be known from the oil tanker traffic, not from the communications.

Case File

The case: Tehran claims that a draft of seven steps to end the war is still alive after the Qatari-mediated round. Includes reopening of Hormuz and ending the naval blockade. Washington does not confirm it.
Key data: plan presented in September; round held on Sunday, November 1; unpublished full text; Reuters quotes an informed official; Hormuz moves around a fifth of the world’s oil and about a third of its LNG.
For Spain: The impact comes from the price of the barrel and gas, not from direct trade. Repsol, moeve and IAG They are the most sensitive listed ones; Spanish regasification capacity makes the country a gateway for LNG to the rest of Europe.