Trump closes in Iowa and Kansas with midterm election polls pointing to a Republican majority

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What has happened? The latest survey by the New York Times and the University of Siena, with 5,708 interviewed between October 23 and November 1, gives the Republican Party a nine-point advantage among those who decided their vote in the last month in seven key Senate races.
Who is behind? donald trump closes the campaign in Iowa and Kansas; he Democratic Party maintains the aggregate advantage, with Michigan (+11) and Texas (+7) as the best data.
What impact does it have? Control of the Senate is decided on November 3 and the tariffs, the defense spending that Washington demands from NATO and the commercial framework that affects Spanish exports depend on it.

The midterm election polls have left the information that the White House wanted to hear. Voters who decided their vote in the last month favor the Republican Party by nine points in the seven Senate races that will decide control of the upper house, according to the latest poll by the New York Times and the University of Siena, released this Sunday night.

Last-minute undecideds break towards the Republican Party

The study was carried out between October 23 and November 1 on a sample of 5,708 voters and lands 48 hours before the polls on November 3. In the aggregate, the Democrats maintain the lead in the seven races: Michigan (+11), Texas (+7), Maine (+6), Ohio (+5), Kansas (+5), Alaska (+2) and an Iowa that the report itself describes as a technical tie. All Democratic candidates, except Mary Peltola in Alaska, improved their position compared to the previous Times and Siena poll.

During the last month of the campaign, Democrats have hit the management of donald trump of the conflict with Iran and the behavior of the economy. Republicans have responded with another framework: presenting the opposition as a formation out of touch with reality on social issues and too comfortable with socialism. It is the classic script of an American campaign closing. What’s new is who moves last.

With a margin of error ranging between 4.8 points in Alaska and 3.3 in Texas, the data requires caution. The report adds a technical warning that in Washington It is closely monitored: white manual workers are the most difficult group to reach in a survey. About that segment, and about the late deciders —those that are decided in the final stretch—, the largest measurement errors have historically been concentrated. Nine percent may be real or may be a mirage of the sample.

The closing of the campaign in Iowa and Kansas

Trump closes the campaign this Monday in Iowa and Kansas, the two states where his team believes that the last-minute displacement could tip the balance. In Iowa the poll registers a technical tie; In Kansas, a traditionally Republican territory, the Democratic candidacy arrives with a five-point lead. Every seat counts: the Senate renews a third of its members and the majority is decided in a handful of states.

On Sunday morning, Congresswoman Haley Stevenswho lost the Michigan Democratic primary to Abdul el-Sayed, announced his support for the Republican Mike Rogers. The change fell like a bucket of cold water among Democratic leaders, who consider Michigan essential to recover the upper house. Nobody saw it coming.

Nine points among those who decided in the last month is not a victory, but it explains why the White House is already talking about a Republican majority.

In Alaska, the campaign Mary Peltola faces accusations of having recruited a candidate with a name similar to that of the senator Dan Sullivan to subtract votes. Peltola’s team denies this and the survey was, for the most part, completed before the story broke. These types of episodes, added to the cross-complaints from headquarters, usually move voters who still doubt.

Independents, on the other hand, continue to view the seven Democratic candidates more favorably than their Republican rivals, according to the same study. The paradox is the real story of these elections: the electorate does not reject the Democrats, but neither does it end up embracing them. And the numbers don’t move alone.

Washington Logic

From within the American political system, the reading is less dramatic. A president in the middle of his term usually pays a price at the polls, and the current one arrives at this meeting with the economy at the center of the debate and an open conflict with Iran that the opposition has turned into a battering ram. The coalition that supports Republican Party He does not need to win the popular vote: it is enough for him that the Senate map, designed by rural states, continues to work in his favor. That is the structural problem of the Democratic Party for three cycles.

The map rules.

The most useful precedent is 2022. Then the polls anticipated a Republican wave that remained a mere tide, and the Senate was resolved by a handful of thousands of votes in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. The comparison with 1994, when Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America handed over both chambers to the Republicans, reminds that the real waves are seen in the scrutiny, not in the poll.

The question remains whether that nine percent resists the filter of participation. In 2020 and 2016, the undecided also moved late and the models took time to capture it; In both cases the final photo looked more like the average of the surveys than the last headline. Those who decide late are usually also the ones who stay home the easiest.

For Spain, the distribution of Congress is not an academic curiosity. The continuity of the tariff framework agreed between Brussels and Washington in 2025, the pace of defense spending that NATO demands from its partners and the fine print of the review of foreign investments depend on the majority that emerges on November 3.

That’s where part of the business of groups like Inditex, Iberdrola o Ferrovial, with a consolidated presence in the American market. A Republican Congress means continuity in the rules of the game; a divided Congress, months of blockade and negotiation piece by piece. The new Congress takes office on January 3, 2027 and the next event the markets are looking at is the FOMC meeting in December. None of that is decided at an Iowa rally. But it all starts there.

Case File

The case: The latest poll by the New York Times and Siena, released on Sunday night, detects a flight of undecided people towards the Republican Party 48 hours before the midterm elections.
Key data: 5,708 interviewed between October 23 and November 1; nine points of Republican advantage among those who decided in the last month; margin of error between 3.3 and 4.8 points; Democrats lead in Michigan (+11), Texas (+7), Maine (+6), Ohio (+5), Kansas (+5), and Alaska (+2), with Iowa tied.
For Spain: The distribution of the Senate and the House of Representatives conditions tariffs, the defense spending required of NATO partners and the legal security of Spanish companies with investments in the United States.