How election polls reflected the US presidential race

The traditional newspaper also published its research. The candidates are technically tied in the cutoff made in the decisive states. This is where there is no traditional definition of voter preferences, whether for Democrats or Republicans.

In partnership with Siena College, the NYT poll showed Kamala numerically ahead by a small margin in: Nevada (49%/46%), North Carolina (48%/46%), Wisconsin (49%/47%), and Georgia (48%/47%).

On the other hand, Trump leads in Arizona (49% / 45%). In two other states, the score is the same: Pennsylvania (48% / 48%) and Michigan (47% / 47%).

The difference in the decisive states is within the survey’s margin of error, which is 3.5 percentage points. The survey was carried out with 7,879 likely voters between October 24th and November 2nd.

ABC News/Ipsos showed Kamala numerically ahead, with 49%. Trump added 46%. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points and was produced from October 29 to November 1, with a sample of 3,140 adults, including 2,267 likely voters.

Also released over the weekend, the NBC News poll showed a tie between the candidates, at 49%. Only 2% of voters said they were unsure about their choice. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The research panorama was to simulate the vehicle survey in October (48% / 48%). In September, Harris had 49%, and Trump 44%.