‘It’s like sitting on a bomb’: the earthquake lurking in Istanbul

When Tolga Sahin saw his roof collapse for the second time, he understood that moving to another city was a matter of life and death. The first time it happened, it didn’t matter much. “It could happen to anyone.” But when the plaster gave way again without anything happening, he realized that the entire structure of the building was compromised. There was no doubt that, when the earthquake finally reached Istanbul, it would be beneath not only the plaster, but the entire building.

It is in buildings like these, on the verge of collapse, that many of the 16 million people live – or 20 million, if we consider the unofficial notes that include immigrants. It is a population equivalent to the metropolitan region of São Paulo, and all standing on the same tectonic fault. The omens of an earthquake estimated at magnitude 7.2 on the Richter scale – equivalent to the one that shook Haiti in 2010 – are a frequent topic in the city; among experts, it is not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’ it will occur.

Deniz Ertuncay, a master in seismology from the Bosphorus University in Istanbul and currently a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Triste in Italy, says the disaster will happen “in this lifetime” – whose lifetime it is is unclear, but it is near future. And, if on the one hand, the 20 million people want to delay the earthquake as long as possible, he says that Istanbul faces a dilemma: “The longer you wait, the more stress will accumulate, and therefore the greater the damage.”

Explaining the earthquake

The Marmara Fault ruptured in 1509 and then in 1766, an interval of 257 years. The year 2023 marked this same interval. Now, with each passing day, the chances of the time bomb exploding increase. Ertuncay explains that an earthquake happens when the stress accumulated in tectonic faults is greater than the rock can withstand, and then it ruptures, generating tremors.
Accurately estimating earthquakes is difficult work. Historical recurrence, geological movement and rock stiffness are some of the factors that researchers use to make predictions, which can vary from method to method. Therefore, it is impossible to know precisely the date, intensity and exact location.