With ‘Unfortunate Netanyahu’, only 1st phase of truce is likely, analysts say

The health condition of the hostages will be decisive for the progress of the ceasefire. The agreement was divided into three phases. The first starts tomorrow. The second, at the beginning of February, foresees the release of the remaining hostages. The third, and last, still depends on negotiations. For Gherman, the conditions under which the hostages will be handed over could change the course of the truce.

It may be that the victims’ situation is so bad that these conditions for their return could change the profile of the second phase of the agreement. I have suspicions that the other phases of the agreement may not come to fruition Michel Gherman

For the professor, Netanyahu should boycott the second phase of the agreement. “The return of these people makes what he dreams of: the continuation of the war impossible. I think the first phase will go away, and the second phase, he will do everything to make it worse — because of the commitment he made today that the war will continue The project of the Israeli extreme right is genocide and Netanyahu needs to maintain the war for this to be confirmed.”

If Israel breaches the ceasefire, the country risks facing a series of consequences. Among them, condemnation from allies and the international community, who have been pushing for a ceasefire as part of the humanitarian effort. Furthermore, there is a risk of renewed hostilities by Hamas and other groups, which could intensify the conflict.

Karina Stange Calandrin highlights that failure to comply with the agreement could harm future diplomatic efforts, making it difficult to resolve the conflict in the long term. “Still, the justification for any non-compliance, such as an action by Hamas that could be interpreted as a breach of the agreement, will be a determining factor in the international response.”

The agreement was announced on Wednesday by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, mediators of the negotiations, but was only approved by the Israeli government on Friday. Despite the approval, the hostages’ families fear the deal will fail as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from far-right members of his cabinet.