China: For Xi Jinping, giving in Trump is not an option

Hong Kong – Xi Jinpingpresident of ChinaIt wants to show that it will not be intimidated. Given the latest threat of the president Donald Trump to impose a fare 50% additional about Chinese products unless Beijing reverses their retaliatory measures on US importsChina’s main leader remained firm. The Chinese Ministry of Trade accused the United States of “blackmail” and stated that Beijing “will fight to the end.”

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But behind this position is a more complicated set of realities for Xi, which makes politically and economically unsustainable to offer concessions To the United States, China’s largest commercial partner and the main rival by global influence. With Trump also refusing to retreat, a devastating trade war among the two largest economies can be inevitable – a confrontation with painful consequences that will be SENSED THROUGH THE WORLD.

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The dilemma for Xi is that Look weak is not an option, but retaliation risks a climb even bigger. The Chinese leader performed as a national savior who is rejuvenating the greatness of his country. As a result, Beijing has less flexibility to retreat in a confrontation with Washington, such as other US business partners, such as Vietnam, they tried because it could undermine Xi’s legitimacy, analysts say.

Gewirtz, who now writes a book about US-China relations, continues: “XI has built an image of yourself as a challenging strong man ahead of a powerful country, and China’s official message is conveying that they are determined to resist US pressure even at a high cost.”

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This helps to explain why China has canceled an agreement to sell a part of the Tiktok US investors last week in response to Trump’s wide rates and why it is resisting the sale of ports belonging to Hong Kong company CK Hutchison over the course of Panama Canal.

It also relates to why Beijing threatened more contracted if Trump moves forward with the imposition of an additional 50% tariff on Chinese products. China said it is willing to talk, but not under pressure. Chinese leaders are also probably calculating that a confrontation with the Trump administration is inevitablethe analysts say.

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Trump’s fares last week – which also aimed at countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, where Chinese companies set up factories to get around previous US tariffs – would be seen in Beijing as evidence that Washington is determined to block the rise of China.

“From this perspective, there is little to earn capitulating Trump’s last demand, because it would not resolve the underlying challenge of the United States,” said Ryan Hass, director of China Center John L. Thornton at Brookings Institution. “In the best of the case, they believe this would only postpone America’s determination to destroy China’s economy.”

CHINA COMMERCIAL IMBALLANCE USA

To the increasing tensions They make a meeting between Xi and Trump increasingly unlikely. Trump, who considers his characteristic weapon unpredictability, said he is open to dialogue with Xi, until suggesting that the Chinese leader would visit. But the Chinese officers are reluctant to schedule a meeting until the two parties have negotiated the details in advance.

Even if XI gave in and submitted to Trump’s demands to cancel China’s retaliatory tariffs, it is unclear what kind of trade agreement would make a significant difference in huge commercial imbalance between the two countries. The United States imported US $ 440 billion in Chinese products last year, more than three times the value of US $ 144 billion In US products that China imported.

Beijing sees Trump focused solely on undermine the dominance of China in exports To bring manufacturing back to the United States, said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington Stimson Center. “Decapation can be the ultimate goal,” Sun said, describing how China is probably interpreting Trump’s motivations.

Xi has long warned that Ascension of China It will probably not be without contestation on the part of the West and has invested heavily in efforts to build China’s self -sufficiency.

China appeals to the population to trust in the country

This week, while stock markets around the world plummeted, Beijing mobilized state banks and investment companies, known informally in China as the “national team”, to reinforce their participation in Chinese actions in an effort to contain the fall. Chinese actions climbed slightly on Tuesday after large falls a day earlier.

People’s Daily, the Communist Party spokesman, published a comment on Sunday by installing the Chinese citizens to have Confidence in China’s ability to support tariffs. The article argued that China has expanded its trade markets outside the United States and that the Chinese economy is becoming more self -sufficient with the help of technology advances, as artificial intelligence.

Economists claim that these points are true, but that a large -scale trade war as threatened by Trump will still cause considerable pain to China. If the Trump administration imposes an additional 50%rate, this could raise the US fare about Chinese products to 104%. For some products, however, the rate will probably be much higher due to tariffs dating back to Trump’s first term.

Chinese exporters may not simply be able to divert their products to other countries, as the flow of Chinese exports has already been received with concern in large markets such as the European Union. At the same time, in this tariff bravado gameAnalysts in China believe that Trump will be more likely to succumb to internal pressure to change course due to increasing costs of products and collapse of stock values ​​in the United States.

The United States needed China, Wen said, more than China needed the United States, because Chinese factories make parts and components that cannot be found anywhere else in the world. “Other countries will buy products from China and then sell them to the United States,” he said.

USA as a source of chaos and instability

Part of China’s strategy has also been to use chaotic consequences of tariffs Trump’s to try to divert the rest of the world from Washington’s orbit. XI is supposedly planning to visit Southeast Asia countries, including Vietnam, next week.

Beijing also tried to design a front united with Japan and SU KoreaL against Trump’s tariffs, although officers of these countries, which depend on America for security, have distanced themselves from the Chinese position.

The same day Trump announced his fares, China’s Foreign Ministry posted a video on social networks portraying United States as a source of damage and instabilitywith references to the pressure of the US President to deport migrants and the imposed tariffs on newly felt cars in a port. “Do you want to live in such a world?” Asks a narrator. This was followed by scenes of Chinese peace troops and Chinese rescue teams by removing victims from the rubble after the recent Mianmar earthquake on a soundtrack with John Lennon’s “Imagine”.

“There is no doubt that Beijing is enjoying this moment,” said Danny Russel, an Asia Society Institute’s Diplomacy and Security Analyst in Washington. The video of the Foreign Ministry is “a pure propaganda” designed to “paint Trump’s tariffs as a reckless US chaos, while China offers order and partnership.”

“But Beijing’s view is conflicting,” said Russel. “Beijing’s instinct is to avoid interrupting his enemy when he is making a mistake, but they are also deeply concerned that these errors can collapse the global economy and China together with her. ”