AI will replace 80% of jobs in 80% of occupations, says Silicon Valley billionaire

Yet another Silicon Valley billionaire has predicted that most jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI), whether you work on a farm or in sales. “I estimate that 80% of 80% of all jobs, perhaps more, can be done by an AI,” warned famous investor and entrepreneur Vinod Khosla.

Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems in 1982 and investor in companies such as Netscape, Amazon and Google, highlighted that AI can replace professionals in different areas, including doctors, psychiatrists, salespeople and engineers. In an extensive blog post, he explained that he has spent the last four decades studying disruptive technologies and has come to the conclusion that AI will reduce the need for human labor as it will perform most functions more efficiently, quickly and cheaply.

To avoid an “economic dystopia”, where “wealth is increasingly concentrated at the top while intellectual and physical work is devalued”, resulting in mass unemployment, Khosla points to a solution: universal basic income (UBI). “AI could create a world where a small elite thrives while the rest face economic instability, especially in a democracy navigating without strong policies,” Khosla wrote.

“As AI reduces the need for human labor, UBI could become crucial, with governments playing a key role in regulating the impact of AI and ensuring an equitable distribution of wealth,” he added. “As labor costs reduce and productivity increases, the role of government regulation will be vital in managing the distribution of wealth and maintaining social well-being.”

But not everything is despair. If AI is used in a positive way, Khosla believes it has the potential to “generate more than enough wealth for everyone, and everyone will be better off than in a world without it.” For those who still have jobs, this could finally open up the possibility of a shorter work week.

“With the right policies, we could smooth the transition and even introduce a three-day work week,” explained Khosla, adding that within ten years, a million bipedal robots could have already taken on several repetitive tasks.

The 69-year-old said white-collar workers may be the first to be replaced, but blue-collar workers won’t be immune to automation either — and, in his opinion, most people will be happier for it. “Take investment banking, for example — is it rewarding to spend 16 hours a day poring over an Excel spreadsheet or a PowerPoint presentation, repeating the same rote tasks?”

Khosla argues that if 80% of our work were replaced by robots, we could have a one-day work week where humans would do “the 20% of the work we might need or want.” He believes this change could redefine what it means to be human, freeing people from the monotony of a job that defines their entire existence.

Instead of spending eight hours a day, five days a week working, people will be able to pursue hobbies, spend time with loved ones or, in Khosla’s case, grow a garden, ski and hike. “Life will not become less meaningful once we eliminate undesirable, labor-intensive jobs,” he concludes. “On the contrary — life will become more meaningful as the need to work 40 hours a week could disappear within a few decades for countries that adapt to these technologies.”

Tech industry leaders agree: there will be less work thanks to AI. Khosla is not the first to admit that AI will take up much of the workload and result in the need for a universal income, as well as some serious thinking about what to do with all that free time. While some see increased efficiency as an opportunity to extract more from their workers, Bill Gates believes it will allow the working population to lessen their efforts.

Like Khosla, the Microsoft founder envisions a three-day work week thanks to AI, as “machines can produce all the food and products, and we don’t have to work as hard.” Likewise, Elon Musk has repeatedly insisted that work will one day become “like a hobby.” “You can have a job if you want, or personal satisfaction, but AI will be able to do everything,” he told UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, echoing that this will lead to a “universal high income”, a superior version of universal basic income, which other Silicon Valley figures such as Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg have advocated.

Likewise, Avital Balwit, chief of staff at Anthropic, one of the most promising AI startups, recently predicted that most jobs are destined for obsolescence — and anyone who thinks otherwise is in denial. Instead of commuting to an office (or a farm, or factory) five days a week, she believes people will live more like the nobility of “Bridgerton” and “Downton Abbey.” “If we can achieve a world where people have their material needs met but do not need to work, aristocrats could be a relevant comparison,” concluded Balwit.

Of course, experts have long predicted that improvements in technology would allow workers to reduce their workload, only to find themselves assigned more productive tasks to fill the time saved. In 1930, economist John Maynard Keynes published an essay entitled “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren”, in which he predicted that in a century people would work only 15 hours a week, because by then — 2030 — consumer needs would be met with very little work. This prediction has not yet come true.