Analysis: Xi Jinping lets Donald Trump claim victory, but comes out of meeting stronger

When Xi Jinping emerged from his meeting with President Donald Trump this Thursday (30), he conveyed the confidence of a powerful leader who could make Washington back down.

The outcome of the conversations indicated that he succeeded.

By using China’s near-monopoly over rare earth metals and its purchasing power over U.S. soybeans, Xi won key concessions from Washington — a reduction in tariffs, the suspension of port fees for Chinese ships, and the postponement of U.S. export controls that would have barred more Chinese companies from accessing American technology. Both sides also agreed to extend a truce reached earlier this year to limit tariffs.

“What is clear is that they have become increasingly bold in exerting influence, and are happy to accept any concessions from the U.S.,” said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official in the White House and State Department under President Joe Biden.

Sounding almost as if he was giving a lecture, Xi told Trump that the “recent twists” in the trade war should be instructive for both, according to a Chinese government summary of Xi’s remarks at the meeting in Busan, South Korea.

“Both sides should consider the bigger picture and focus on the long-term benefits of cooperation, rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation,” Xi said.

By “turnarounds,” Xi was likely referring to the past few months, or nearly a year, of retaliatory measures in the form of tariffs, sanctions and export controls. This month, China escalated dramatically, strengthening its position by announcing sweeping new restrictions on the sale of rare earths, critical minerals needed for almost all modern technology. Cutting off its supply could cripple American industries.

Xi’s message seemed to be: Beijing has proven its ability to fight back, and Washington would do well to remember that.

“After Trump launched his trade and tariff war, China was the only country that matched the United States blow for blow,” said Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Nanjing University, noting that the biggest victory for China could be for the U.S. to think twice before imposing new measures against China.

“If Trump had forced China to implement its full export controls on rare earths, it would have been a lose-lose situation for both sides,” he said.

At the same time, Xi also seemed to understand what Trump needed: a deal he could sell as a victory at home. The result allowed Trump to claim a victory for American farmers and businesses, even as China largely restored the status quo by agreeing to buy soybeans and delaying new export restrictions on rare earths.

Trump pumped his fist in the air as he boarded Air Force One, and later said on the plane that Xi had agreed to take further action to stop the flow of chemicals used to make fentanyl from reaching the United States. He also said China has promised to buy more American soybeans. “Our farmers will be very happy!” posted to Truth Social afterwards. “I would like to thank President Xi for this!”

After the two leaders met, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that it would suspend restrictions on rare earths announced in October for a year. (The ministry did not mention previous controls announced in April.)

Separately, Trump said he would halve the 20% tariffs he imposed on Chinese goods to pressure China to do more to stop fentanyl trafficking. The reduction announced Thursday brings total tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47% from 57%, he said. China’s Ministry of Commerce also said the two sides agreed to extend for a year the truce to limit additional tariffs, which was originally due to expire on November 10.

Some experts said China inevitably had the upper hand in the trade dispute because the Trump administration never had a clear objective.

“I think it’s an approach that can safely be described as tactics without strategy,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously analyzed China policy at the CIA.

“The ostensible goal was to address some of the most difficult trade issues that have long plagued the relationship. Instead, the PRC (People’s Republic of China) side successfully orchestrated a game of ‘whack-a-mole’ for the Trump administration,” Czin said.

Still, in a possible concession from Beijing, China’s official summary of the meeting did not mention Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims. It’s an issue Chinese leaders often bring up when they meet with their American counterparts to pressure Washington to reduce U.S. support for the island.

The agreements reached on Thursday could mean at least a temporary calm in the troubled US-China relationship. Trump said the two leaders also discussed “working together” to end the war in Ukraine. He said he would travel to China in April and that Xi would visit the United States after that.

Xi also appealed to Trump’s preference for a personal relationship, aligning himself with Trump’s domestic agenda, saying he believed China’s development “goes hand in hand” with the president’s vision of “making America great again.” Trump, in turn, praised Xi, calling him “a great leader of a great country” and a “great friend.”

“It’s a personalized style of diplomacy that appeals to the instincts of both leaders,” said Lizzi C. Lee, a researcher focused on the Chinese economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “For now, these gestures of goodwill appear to set the tone for a period of managed stability.”