As Motta and Alcohumbre can create challenge in Congress to Lula “unpopular”

The president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) It will have two years of discussions with Congress until the end of its mandate, from now on with presidents of the House and Senate with a profile more independent than the current and who promise to continue to exercise rigid control over the budget, at the moment in that the government goes through a drop in popularity.

Parliamentarians should elect the deputy Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB) as mayor and guarantee the return of David Alcolumbre (Union-AP) for the presidency of the Senate. Both gained support from governors and oppositionists, in part for promising to fight to keep Congress the fate of a growing slice of the budget, without great consideration for the Lula government’s political priorities.

Currently, parliamentarians control almost a quarter of the resources available for government investments and implementation through amendments, a participation that has grown significantly in the last decade.

“The fight must persist and thickens,” said Creomar de Souza, CEO of Dharma Political Risk.

The dispute over control of the budget between executive and legislature also dragged the judiciary, which became the target of criticism of deputies and senators, among other reasons, for seeking to impose transparency and traceability rules for budget resources via amendments since the expansion of the so -called “secret budget ”.

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Favorites in the dispute are David Alcolumbre (Brazil-AP Union) and Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB)

Pressure

This is not an easy time for Lula, who faces falling approval rates, while dealing with the pressure to fulfill their main promises to voters and investors increasingly concerned about government spending.

A genius/Quaest poll, released on Monday, pointed out, for the first time in his third term, that in January the disapproval of the president’s work numerically surpassed approval, with 49% to 47%.

In the Northeast, a region where historically the petista has a significant positive assessment, approval fell from 67% to 60% between December and January and disapproval rose from 32% to 37%. The survey error margin is 1 percentage point for more or less.

Lula will probably compete for a fourth non -consecutive term in 2026 and seek to put a mark for this management biennium.

The 35-year-old Paraibano Hugo Motta was chosen by the current mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who, since his first election for office, in 2020, was able to significantly increase the budget portion that deputies can spend in projects of your choice.

Motta began his political career in Brasilia under the protection of another mayor, Eduardo Cunha (MDB-RJ), who, in 2016, led President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment process, a successor chosen by Lula after his first two terms.

Amapaense Alcolumbre, 47, should return to command of the Senate after four years of Pacheco management.

With broad support from governors and oppositionists, both motta and alcohubre tend to follow the leadership styles of Lira and Pacheco. But in general, they are considered more independent in relation to the Plateau than predecessors, according to several sources heard by Reuters in recent days.

This new scenario, according to Creomar de Souza, is challenging for Lula. Among the priorities of Lula in Congress are approving a bill that exempts from income tax those who earn less than 5,000 reais per month, while, in return, it intends to increase taxation on super rich; The regulation of the tax reform, the reform of the Welfare of the military and possible new tax measures.

Ministerial reform

Government allies in Congress admitted to Reuters resurrently that government support among parliamentarians this year is not guaranteed. Many believe that the president will need to do a ministerial reform or open to party directions key positions to get support in approving his policies.

Behind the scenes, Alcolumbre has given signs that it will require allies to have prominent positions in the government, according to sources heard by Reuters.

“Or pays and gives him what he wants or will have a problem,” said an important Senate PT source. “But he has a good relationship with Lula, and if negotiations flow, everything can work out.”

A source close to alcohumbre, however, denied that he indicated interest in placing names in the Lula administration. He also pointed out that he will help the government in the country’s interests of interest.

“He has excellent relationship with President Lula, so much so that the PT has declared unanimous support to his candidacy,” said this source.

In turn, a source close to Motta said that he should not bring difficulties to the government, which will have as a axis of voting related to the economy, the environment and safety. He also pointed out that he has great concern with the tax issue, that the government needs to make cuts where it is needed and has good traffic with Fernando Haddad.

“The presidency of Hugo Motta should be exercised with independence and harmony, precisely as it is in the Constitution,” said Federal Deputy Marcos Pereira (SP), president of the Motta Party. “I do not see why to have concern,” he amended, when asked about his performance in relation to the government.

During a news conference on Thursday Lula told reporters that, for now, he should not do a ministerial reform and would not interfere with Saturday’s election in Congress.

“I don’t get in the election of the House and election of the Senate. It is a matter of political parties, deputies and senators. The President of the Republic does not get into it. My Senate President is the one who wins and the House is the one who wins. Whoever wins I will respect and I will establish a new relationship, ”he said.

“I confess that I will not have difficulty in relation to Congress. I will not have. And I am not one of those who keeps waiting for the opposition to compliment me. Opposition was not made to praise government, it was made to criticize, ”he said.