Attack cartels, take over fields or… nothing: Trump assesses options and risks regarding Venezuela

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has developed a series of options for military action in Venezuela, including direct attacks on military units protecting President Nicolás Maduro and moves to take control of the country’s oil fields, according to several U.S. officials.

President Donald Trump has not yet made a decision on how or even whether to proceed. Officials have said he is reluctant to approve operations that could put American troops at risk or that could turn into an embarrassing failure. But many of his senior advisers are pushing for one of the most aggressive options: ousting Maduro from power.

Trump aides have asked the Justice Department for additional guidance that could provide a legal basis for any military action beyond the current campaign of attacks on boats that the administration says are trafficking narcotics, without providing evidence. Such guidance could include a legal justification for targeting Maduro without the need for congressional authorization for the use of military force, much less a declaration of war.

While the guidance is still being drafted, some government officials hope it will argue that Maduro and his top security officials are central figures in the Cartel de los Soles, which the government has designated a narco-terrorist group. The Justice Department must maintain that this designation makes Maduro a legitimate target, despite long-standing U.S. legal prohibitions against the assassination of national leaders.

The Justice Department declined to comment. But the attempt to justify the attack on Maduro would constitute another effort by the government to expand its legal authorities. It has carried out targeted killings of drug trafficking suspects who, until September, were pursued and arrested at sea rather than killed by drone strikes. Any effort to remove Maduro would place the government under greater scrutiny over the legal justification presented, given the nebulous mix of reasons it has so far presented for confronting Maduro. These include drug trafficking, the need for US access to oil and Trump’s allegations that the Venezuelan government released prisoners to the United States.

Trump has issued a series of contradictory public messages about his intentions, goals and justifications for any future military action. He has said in recent weeks that attacks on speedboats in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific, which have killed at least 65 people, would be expanded to land attacks. But that didn’t happen.

When asked by CBS News whether the United States was headed for war with Venezuela, Trump said Sunday: “I doubt it. I don’t think so, but they’ve been treating us very badly, not just with drugs.” He repeated his evidence-free claim that Maduro opened his prisons and mental institutions and sent members of the Tren de Aragua gang to the United States, an accusation Trump has made since his presidential campaign last year.

Asked if Maduro’s days as president of Venezuela were numbered, he added: “I think so, yes.”

Support for the more aggressive options comes from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also acting national security adviser, and Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff and homeland security adviser. According to several US officials, they have said privately that they believe Maduro should be forced out.

Trump has repeatedly expressed reservations, according to aides, in part out of fear that the operation could fail. He is in no rush to make a decision and has repeatedly asked what the United States could get in return, with a specific focus on extracting some value from Venezuelan oil for the United States.

“President Trump was clear in her message to Maduro: Stop sending drugs and criminals into our country,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. “The president has made it clear that he will continue to target narco-terrorists who traffic illicit narcotics — anything else is speculation and should be treated as such.”

Trump likely won’t be forced to decide until at least the Gerald R. Ford, the U.S.’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, arrives in the Caribbean mid-month. The Ford carries about 5,000 sailors and has more than 75 attack, surveillance and support aircraft, including F/A-18 fighters.

There has been a steady buildup of American troops in the region since late August. Even before the aircraft carrier’s arrival, there are about 10,000 American military personnel in the Caribbean, roughly half on warships and half on bases in Puerto Rico.

In recent weeks, the Pentagon has also sent B-52 and B-1 bombers from bases in Louisiana and Texas to carry out missions off the coast of Venezuela in a show of force, according to military officials. B-52s can carry dozens of guided bombs, and B-1s can carry up to 34 tons of guided and unguided munitions, the largest non-nuclear payload in the Air Force’s arsenal.

The Army’s 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which has conducted extensive anti-terrorism helicopter operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, recently conducted training exercises off the Venezuelan coast.

The military buildup was so rapid and public that it appears to be part of a campaign of psychological pressure on Maduro. Indeed, Trump has spoken openly about his decision to issue a “determination” allowing the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela — the kind of operations that presidents almost never discuss in advance.

If Trump decides to order action inside Venezuela, it would pose considerable military, legal and political risk. Despite the risks Trump took in authorizing the bombing of three nuclear-related sites in Iran in June, this did not involve an effort to overthrow or replace the Iranian government.

If Trump follows this path, there is no guarantee that he will succeed or that he can guarantee that a new administration will emerge that is more friendly to the United States. Advisers say much more planning was done to attack Maduro’s government than was needed to govern Venezuela if the operation were successful.

And some of Trump’s most loyal political supporters have warned against attacks on Maduro, reminding the president that he was elected to end “forever wars,” not to incite new ones.