Centrão sees Bolsonaro’s image weakened, but avoids working for a successor

Centrão chiefs adopted a tone of caution in the first hours after the preventive arrest of former president Jair Bolsonaro, taken on Saturday to a room at the Federal Police Superintendence in Brasília. The assessment of group members is that the episode involving the violation of the electronic ankle bracelet, justified by the former president by “hallucinations” caused by medication, ended up weakening him, but that his role in defining the right-wing candidate in the 2026 elections will still be relevant.

The demonstrations of support for Bolsonaro published on Saturday by deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), former president of the Chamber and one of the most influential parliamentarians of the Centrão, and the president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, were interpreted behind the scenes as a sign that the group should not abandon the former president. In addition to PP and PSD, the Centrão “consortium” comprises União Brasil, the Republicans and part of the MDB.

An important leader of one of the Centrão acronyms states that the order is to wait for Bolsonaro’s endorsement of a name that unites the right, a condition seen as necessary to face President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s attempt to be re-elected. For him, preventive detention did not change the scenario, since the former president already suffered from the restrictions imposed by house arrest. On Sunday, Minister Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of the case at the STF, authorized family visits twice a week. Meetings with allies, previously permitted, however, are restricted.

Even so, the idea of ​​Centrão members now is to wait for the former president’s legal and health situation to stabilize to define the next steps. The bloc’s assessment is that any articulation made without its blessing would create unnecessary noise, could be read as betrayal and would further reinforce tensions with the most radical right-wing base.

Bolsonaro was preventively arrested on Saturday, but allies hope that in the coming days he will begin serving his sentence for a 27-year sentence for crimes related to an attempted coup in the country.

The preference of the bloc’s chiefs is that, even in prison, Bolsonaro nominates his former minister and current governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), as his candidate for President in 2026. The gesture is seen as a way of uniting the right and avoiding dissensions that could divide the votes of Bolsonaro voters. Relatives of the former president, such as his sons Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro, however, resist and try to qualify to be their father’s political successor.

Device tampering

The electronic ankle bracelet episode, however, is seen as a point of wear and tear. Behind the scenes, Centrão leaders claim that the former president’s admission that he tried to damage the equipment weakens the discourse of political persecution sustained by allies. One argument used is that causing a malfunction in the monitoring device would result in anyone else being taken to prison.

Right-wing governors who came to show solidarity with Bolsonaro on Saturday morning, after his arrest, remained silent after the publication of the video in which the former president admits violating the electronic ankle monitor, which was only released in the afternoon of the same day.

Cláudio Castro (PL), Jorginho Mello (PL), Ratinho Jr. (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) and Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) made publications during the morning in support of Bolsonaro, but refrained from making further comments about the case on social media after the video was broadcast.

Who competes for the spoils

Tarcísio de Freitas – Affiliated with Republicados and former minister of Bolsonaro, the governor of São Paulo is the main bet of the Centrão parties for the 2026 dispute. Considered the best positioned to inherit the former president’s electorate, Tarcísio is still considering running for re-election.

Other governors – Bolsonaro’s support is also disputed by other rural governors. They are from Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União), from Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), and from Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD). The group appears at a lower level in research.

Bolsonaro Clan – On another front, the former president’s family does not rule out launching one of the clan’s members in the race. The names of former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) have already been considered.