COP Promise, Energy Transition Road Map is debated on deadline

Interministerial meetings to prepare the “National Road Map” for the gradual replacement of the use of fossil fuels are still being held, with just a few days left until the delivery determined by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The creation of the strategy was determined in a presidential order after the lack of consensus on the topic at COP30, held in Brazil.

The 60-day deadline for preparing the guidelines ends on Sunday, the 8th, and is monitored by Parliamentary Fronts, entities such as the Brazilian Institute of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (IBP) and environmental organizations.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA) and the Civil House continue working on a proposed resolution to be submitted to the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), the departments informed the BroadcastGrupo Estado’s real-time news system.

The presidential determination includes the proposal of financing mechanisms for the implementation of the energy transition policy. The text mentions the creation of a fund for the transition with financing funded by a portion of government revenues from oil and natural gas exploration.

For now, the work is only at a ministerial level, but it is of interest on other fronts.

IBP says it is studying how to contribute suggestions to the energy transition map. In the Outlook IBP 2025-2029 report, the entity points out that Brazil is the 2nd largest producer of biofuels in the world and is advancing in cutting-edge technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCUS), positioning the country as a technological leader capable of decarbonizing not only its operations, but also sectors that are difficult to mitigate.

The Parliamentary Fronts for Agriculture, Biodiesel, Ethanol and the Green Economy launched on Wednesday, the 4th, a Coalition for Biofuels, to monitor the regulation of the Future Fuel Law (14,993/2024), and act in dialogue between the Legislative, Executive and productive sector on issues such as strengthening national technological development and recognizing the production of biofuels without compromising the food supply.

At the launch of the Coalition, the group’s general coordinator, federal deputy Arnaldo Jardim (Cidadania-SP), stated that the group will send its contributions to the ‘Map of the Path’ to the Executive by February 8.

“We are systematizing the contributions of each sector and we will present a proposal for a ‘Road Map’. We will send our contributions to everyone.”

The Climate Observatory (OC) – which brings together 161 civil society organizations, such as the Arayara International Institute and the Oil and Gas Observatory – sent recommendations to the ministries last week. The document addresses governance, budgeting and financing of the energy transition. In this last axis, the entities suggest the elimination of subsidies for fossil production, the use of future oil revenues to pay for the transition through the immediate allocation of capital (direct investment) and the linking of the map’s actions to the Multi-Year Plan (PPA) and the Annual Budget Law (LOA).

Data consolidated by IBP predicts a peak of US$21.3 billion in upstream investments in 2026. The oil and gas industry is expected to support 483,000 jobs this year. Furthermore, by 2029, total government revenue from the sector could reach US$42.3 billion annually.

Global Map

On another front of discussion, the National Energy Transition Forum (Source), created by the MME, approved, last week, its internal regulations and debated the creation of thematic chambers to support the formulation, implementation and monitoring actions of the National Energy Transition Policy (PNTE) and the National Energy Policy Plan (Plante).

At a global level, the COP30 presidency has committed to delivering, by the end of the year, the roadmap for ending dependence on fossils to be discussed at the next climate summit, in Turkey, at the end of 2026. It will be up to Australia to lead the negotiation process.

On Monday, the 2nd, a group of 114 organizations sent an open letter to ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, who chaired the summit in Brazil, questioning whether there will be a “real and inclusive political process” in building the transition. The organizations also cite that the pre-COP and fossil fuel conference in Santa Marta, Colombia in April provide a “key platform to jointly shape the process” and prepare the report for COP31.