Datafolha: 67% reject Bolsonaro’s candidacy and 66% believe in Lula’s reelection

More than half of Brazilians believe that Jair Bolsonaro (PL) should give up a possible presidential candidacy in 2026. According to a Datafolha survey, 67% of respondents positioned themselves against the former president’s attempt to return to the Planalto Palace, even though he was ineligible by 2030.

29% argue that Bolsonaro keep their campaign, while 4% did not know or prefer not to answer.

The survey was done in person with 2,004 voters 16 years or older, in 136 cities of the country, between June 10 and 11. The margin of error is two percentage points, more or less.

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The segments that most demonstrate support for a possible Bolsonaro candidacy include people with income between five and ten minimum wages (42%), evangelicals (40%) and residents of the southern region (37%).

On the other hand, the rejection of the name is more expressive among voters with lower level of education and residents of the Northeast, both with 73%. They also lead resistance those who have lower income (72%), in addition to women and young people, groups where rejection reaches 70%.

Despite the restrictions imposed by the Electoral Justice, Bolsonaro continues to express intention to run. Its ineligibility by 2030 was determined by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) based on two convictions for abuse of political power and misuse of the media.

Lula’s reelection

On the other hand, the perception that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) will return to the polls as a candidate for reelection in 2026 was consolidated among voters. Datafolha survey shows that 66% believe in the candidacy, 42% claim to be sure of that, and 24% point the chance as likely.

The total represents a advance of four percentage points in relation to the previous survey, carried out in early April. In this new round, the institute has heard 2,004 people in person 16 years or older, in 136 Brazilian municipalities. The margin of error is two percentage points, more or less.

On the other hand, the portion of the population that does not believe in a new Lula candidacy fell from 34% to 28%.

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In addition to the perception of the candidacy, Datafolha also tested Lula in different electoral scenarios. In the first round, he leads in five of the six simulations, with voting intentions between 36% and 38%. In possible second round disputes, it appears at a disadvantage against right -wing candidates.

In April, Lula surpassed Bolsonaro for 49% to 40%, but now there is a technical draw: 44% for the petista and 45% for the former president. Against Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), the advantage also decreased from 48% to 39% to 43% to 42%. Despite this, Lula still beats Tarcisio by 37% to 21% in the first round and surpasses Michelle Bolsonaro by 37% to 26%.