Datafolha: Lula would beat Flávio Bolsonaro by 15 points in the 2nd round of elections
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would win a possible 2nd round dispute in the presidential election against senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) if the election were held today, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (6). Flávio was announced on Friday (5) as the candidate chosen by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for an attempted coup.
According to the survey, Lula would have 51% against Flávio’s 36% in the second round. Lula would also have an advantage against Eduardo Bolsonaro, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Ratinho Jr. (PSD) and Michelle Bolsonaro.
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters from Tuesday (2) to Thursday (4), before, therefore, the announcement made by Flávio. The survey was carried out in 113 municipalities with people over 16 years old. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Research scenarios for 2nd round
In a possible dispute between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro the scenario would look like this:
- Lula: 51%
- Flávio: 36%
- Whites: 12%
- Don’t know: 1%
In a possible dispute between Lula and Eduardo Bolsonaro the scenario would look like this:
- Lula: 52%
- Eduardo: 35%
- Whites: 12%
- Don’t know: 1%
In a possible dispute between Lula and Michelle Bolsonaro, the scenario would look like this:
- Lula: 50%
- Michelle: 39%
- Whites: 10%
- Don’t know: 1%
In a possible dispute between Lula and Tarcísio de Freitas the scenario would look like this:
- Lula: 47%
- Tarcísio: 42%
- Whites: 10%
- Don’t know: 2%
In a possible dispute between Lula and Ratinho Jr. the scenario would look like this:
- Lula: 47%
- Mouse: 41%
- Whites: 11%
- Don’t know: 1%
Announcement of candidacy
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) confirmed, on Friday (5), that he will be the candidate chosen by former president Jair Bolsonaro to run for Palácio do Planalto in the 2026 elections.
“It is with great responsibility that I confirm the decision of Brazil’s greatest political and moral leader, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, to give me the mission of continuing our nation’s project”, highlights the excerpt. “I place myself before God and before Brazil to fulfill this mission”, he concludes.
The appointment comes after the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a sentence of more than 27 years in prison in a Federal Police building in Brasília, for his participation in the plot that attempted a coup d’état. Bolsonaro had already been ineligible since 2023, but was trying to reverse the decision of the Superior Electoral Court.
The choice contradicts most projections, which indicated an internal dispute between former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and her son Eduardo over the inheritance of the political name in the dispute. Outside the family, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, was considered the strongest name in search of support.
