Datafolha: Tarcísio leads against Haddad in São Paulo in the first survey of the year

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), leads the dispute for re-election against Fernando Haddad (PT) in the first Datafolha survey of the year, released this Sunday, 8. Tarcísio scored 44% of voting intentions in the survey, against 31% for Fernando Haddad (PT), current Finance Minister of the Lula government who appears as second place in the dispute.

The incumbent threatens a victory in the first round according to the Datafolha poll. Seven months before the election, Tarcísio equals the sum of all opponents in the main scenario tested. Completing the list are Paulo Serra (PSDB), former mayor of Santo André, with 5% of mentions, federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil), with 5%, and political scientist Luiz Felipe D’Ávila (Novo), with 3%. There are still 1% undecided, and 11% opt for a blank or invalid vote. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

The absence of a second round would be a significant setback for Lula, who has had a platform in the country’s largest electoral college throughout the campaign to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), a senator from Rio de Janeiro who is the son of Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of Tarcísio. PT leaders have shown a preference for Haddad behind the scenes due to his previous performance in the state, when he reached the second round, and his leading role on the economic agenda.

Tarcísio’s management, according to Datafolha, is approved by 64% of São Paulo residents and disapproved by another 30%. The question detailed in levels also indicates that 45% of those interviewed consider the government to be excellent or good, 31% as average and 20% as bad or terrible. Tarcísio’s rejection is at 24%, referring to those interviewed who would not vote for him at all, against 38% for Haddad.

Alckmin, Tebet and France

Datafolha also presented three other scenarios to interviewees. In one of them, Haddad would be replaced at the polls by vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), who has already governed the state four times. Tarcísio then scores 46%, against 26% for Alckmin. Lula’s ally has already said that he intends, in 2026, only to repeat the presidential ticket with Lula.

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), in turn, scores 19% in Haddad’s place in a clash with the current governor, chosen by 49% of São Paulo residents in this case. The senator from Mato Grosso do Sul has been defended by strategists linked to the left as a bet to reduce rejection and explore the gender issue.

The Minister of Entrepreneurship, Márcio França (PSB), was not tested by Datafolha as an isolated left-wing candidate against Tarcísio, but only in a congested dispute with Haddad. He would have 5% of voting intentions, against 28% for the PT candidate and 44% for the current state governor.

The survey also shows that Alckmin is less rejected than Haddad, with 29% of respondents saying they would not vote for him at all. The percentage is 20% for France and 27% for Tebet. Kataguiri has 25% rejection, Serra, 19%, and D’Ávila, 18%, while 3% would vote for any candidate, another 3% reject everyone and 3% had no opinion.

Second round

Tarcísio is also a favorite against his opponents in Datafolha’s second round simulations. The tightest performance would be against Alckmin, 50% to 39%. Against Haddad, he would win at this moment by 52% to 37%; against Simone Tebet, by 58% to 28%. The percentage of voters who intend to vote blank or invalid varies between 10% and 12% depending on the scenario tested, while those who do not know or prefer not to give their opinion reach up to 2%.

Funneled dispute

After a period of discredit over Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy in political circles, the current trend is for Governor Tarcísio de Freitas to be a candidate for re-election in São Paulo. His most popular opponent is Fernando Haddad, who is reluctant to run again in the state, but talks to Lula about it and would be more inclined to accept the task.

Datafolha interviewed 1,608 residents of São Paulo, over 16 years old, distributed across 71 municipalities, between the 3rd and 5th of March. The confidence interval is 95%, which means the number of times that the sample used is expected to actually represent the total population. The research is identified at the Superior Electoral Court with the registration code SP-04136/2026.