Dealbook: Are investors too tolerant of uncertainty about tariffs?

Another day, another round of tariff threats from President Trump – and another record for S&P 500. What’s going on? ()

It can be the result of increasing market optimism about an interest rate cut, or relief because some companies have presented surprisingly positive results. Or it can be one of the so -called “Taco Trade”, with convinced investors that Trump will back down on the trade war.

But Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase offered another explanation on Thursday: “Unfortunately, I think there is complacency in the markets.”

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JPMorgan CEO also criticized recent tariffs imposed by Trump and the posture of the Democrats, in the face of the imminent election in New York

Latest news: Trump said on Thursday he would impose a 35% rate on Canada from August 1, and that he plans to increase basic tariffs for all business partners to between 15% and 20%, against 10%. “I think the tariffs were very well received,” he told NBC News. “The stock market has reached a new discharge today.”

Despite the climb of the trade war, the S&P 500 futures on Friday fell slightly only.

But the commercial scenario can start to get confused. Vietnam was surprised by the 20% rate announced by Trump last week, according to, and would be seeking to negotiate better commercial terms. In fact, Hanoi has not formally accepted the key details of what the White House presented as a closed deal and a great victory, adds the site.

• Also read: “Trump Always Chickens Out”: The acronym that pisses US president (and animates Brazil)

This raises a big question about global markets: Should investors believe Trump’s word? “You have to pay his bluff at this point,” said Patrick Armstrong, Plurimo Wealth’s director of investment on Friday.

Interest rates also weigh on investors. Lower loan costs can relieve families and increase corporate profits. Trump has kept the pressure on the Fed: “The country is now ‘back.’ An excellent credit! The Fed should quickly reduce the rate to reflect this force,” he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday.

But the main central bank policy formulators remain divided. In Trump’s group is Christopher Waller, a Trump nominated Fed presidential candidate next year, which is open to reducing loan costs at the next rate definition meeting later this month. Mary Daly, president of the Fed of San Francisco, predicts two cuts, but starting in September. And Alberto Musalem, president of St. Louis Fed, thinks the Central Bank should continue to wait, a similar position to Fed President Jerome Powell.

The future market on Friday was pricing about two cuts, starting in September.

Dimon is a counterattack (someone whose opinion goes against the current) here too. The JPMorgan CEO thinks the rates should rise. “I’m pricing a 40% to 50% chance of this happening, he said, believing that markets are underestimating the consequences of tariffs.