Explosions hinder Bolsonaro’s plans and amnesty for January 8th, says analyst

The two explosions recorded in Praça dos Três Poderes, in Brasília, on Wednesday night (13), should bring more stress to the agenda of the amnesty for those involved in the coup acts of January 8, 2023defended by conservative political leaders in the National Congress. The assessment is by Ricardo Ribeiro, political analyst at the consultancies MCM and LCA.

The episode resulted in the death of a man, identified as the author of the attack. According to the Civil Police Police Report, he was identified as Francisco Wanderley Luiz, and his body remains at the scene. Before the explosion in front of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the author tried to enter the Court building. He allegedly threw an explosive under the building’s awning, showed that he was carrying artifacts with him to a security guard, lay down on the ground and detonated a second explosive on his body.

For Ribeiro, the case, which brings back the coup acts of almost two years ago, should reduce the appeal of granting a pardon to those involved in that emblematic episode that culminated in the invasion of the headquarters of the National Congress and the Supreme Court. He also highlights the growing feeling of “fatigue” among leaders of the so-called “centrão” with agendas linked to the extreme right (such as impeachment of STF ministers, abortion and gender issues), which tends to deepen with the explosions .

The expert believes that, in addition to “making the situation of the proposed pardon for those involved in January 8th very difficult”, yesterday’s episode also hinders the plans of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to recover his political rights (he remains ineligible by decision of the Superior Electoral Court) and contest the 2026 election.

“It is an exaggeration to say that they ended the possibility of approving the amnesty once and for all. But the explosions will certainly greatly reduce the appeal in favor of amnesty to public opinion and, consequently, the willingness of politicians in the center to buy into this Bolsonaro fight. They will also reduce the possibility of Bolsonaro being amnestied by Congress”, he stated in a comment distributed to clients.

In Ribeiro’s assessment, the episode gains strength from a tendency for the “centrão” to move away from Bolsonaro ─ which could favor alternative candidacies, such as a possible flight by the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).

“The fate of the center in the 2026 presidential race is still uncertain. But the tendency to move away from Bolsonarism favors, firstly, the President Tarcísio de Freitas project. For Tarcísio, the first relevant obstacle to trying to reach the Planalto is Jair Bolsonaro and his obstinacy in being a candidate in 2026”, he concluded.

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