Flávio Bolsonaro leads Senate race in RJ; Benedita and Castro dispute 2nd vacancy

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) drops in front of one of Rio de Janeiro’s two vacancies in the Senate in 2026. This is what points out of Paraná polls released on Monday (1), where former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) son appears in all tested scenarios.

The second chair in the Senate, however, follows undefined. The survey shows a technical draw between federal deputy Benedita da Silva (PT-RJ) and Governor Claudio Castro (PL-RJ).

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In addition to support for the former president, protesters also criticized the STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Tested scenarios

In the first scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 33.4% of voting intentions. Benedita comes close behind, with 26.4%, closely followed by Claudio Castro, who scored 25.6%.

Other names included were: former mayor of Duque de Caxias Washington Reis (MDB-RJ), Federal Deputy Marcelo Crivella (Republicans-RJ), former federal deputy Alessandro Molon (PSB-RJ), Deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), former Mayor of Maricá Fabiano Horta (PT-RJ) (MDB-RJ) and PL leader in the House, Sostenes Cavalcante (RJ).

In the second scenario, Flávio expands the advantage, reaching 35.6%. Castro (30.9%) and Benedita (29.8%) appear practically tied. In this clipping, the list was reduced and included, in addition to the three leaders, only Washington Reis, Pedro Paulo and Otoni de Paula.

In 2026, there will be the renewal of two thirds of the Senate. Each state will elect two representatives, and the voter may vote for up to two names. This configuration explains why percentages add over 100%: each interviewee can cite two candidates.

Paraná research heard 2,000 voters in 66 municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, between 24 and 27 August. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for more or less, with confidence level of 95%.