For Centrão, postponing Tarcísio’s trip to Bolsonaro is a strategy to save time
The postponement of the visit by the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), to former president Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned in Papudinha, was interpreted by Centrão leaders as a move to gain time amid the uncertainty on the right in the dispute for the Presidency.
Behind the scenes, the assessment is that the meeting, authorized by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), carried more risks than gains for the governor, by associating him too early with the electoral strategy of the Bolsonaro clan.
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The visit had been requested by the former president’s defense. According to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) told GLOBO, the objective of the meeting would be to reinforce to the governor that his re-election in São Paulo should be treated as a priority. The reading was received with irritation among Tarcísio’s entourage, whose allies still encourage the possibility of him running for the Palácio do Planalto.
Opportunity with security!
The governor’s interlocutors believe that, if the visit had taken place, it would hardly have brought anything positive to his political plans. The assessment is that Bolsonaro has already made his choice by nominating his son as a pre-candidate for President, and that a private conversation would do little to change this scenario. Still, the predominant perception is that the postponement ended up being more advantageous for Tarcísio than the meeting itself. For a Centrão leader, Tarcísio wanted to avoid being pushed into a definition at a time when Bolsonarism is still trying to reorganize itself after the arrest of the former president. According to this reading, the longer the meeting takes to take place, the better for the governor.
In this context, the visit came to be seen as a possible “point of no return”, as it crystallized the expectation that Tarcísio would assume a more explicit role in Flávio’s presidential campaign. For Centrão leaders, this movement would be risky given the senator’s high rejection and the absence, until now, of clear signs that the name chosen by Bolsonaro can unify the right beyond its most loyal nucleus.
One leader summarized the concern by stating that a possible retreat by the party “would be ugly for Bolsonaro and Flávio”, as it would expose insecurity and political fragility. For centrist parties, instability is a negative sign in a field that seeks predictability to organize alliances.
Tarcísio’s visit to Bolsonaro had been authorized by minister Alexandre de Moraes and would be the first meeting between the two since the former president’s arrest, at the end of November — and also the first conversation after Bolsonaro formally nominated his son as a pre-candidate for the Planalto, in December.
