Haddad announces candidacy for SP government and promises to boost Lula’s campaign

The PT announced, this Thursday, the 19th, the pre-candidacy of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, for the government of the state of São Paulo. The party thus repeats the strategy adopted four years ago, when the politician reached the second round, but was defeated by the current occupant of the position, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). The confirmation occurred through a statement at the ABC Metalworkers Union, in São Bernardo do Campo.

The announcement had been expected since last week and came to fruition after two agendas of a federal government delegation in the state — a caravan with mayors, in the morning, and a tribute to former Uruguayan president Pepe Mujica, in the late afternoon. At the union, at night, Lula and Haddad speak to the militants in a symbolic location, where the PT leader began his political career as leader of the category and organized workers’ strikes that would give rise to the PT.

Haddad now faces the challenge of reversing Tarcísio’s favoritism in the electoral polls and also of offering a competitive platform for President Lula in the presidential election, in which Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), from Rio de Janeiro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, appears as the main opponent. São Paulo concentrates more than 20% of the country’s voters.

The Finance Minister resisted accepting the task for months, but received a direct request from the president and was convinced that his participation in the election was necessary. Allies claim that the fear was not of losing again at the polls, which would represent the fourth consecutive electoral defeat, but rather because it is currently included in an agenda of national agendas, in which a possible succession in 2030 is even envisaged.

Datafolha research, carried out between the 3rd and 5th of March, confirmed among the leaders the diagnosis that he would be the ideal candidate, instead of the vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) or the minister of Entrepreneurship, Márcio França (PSB), and of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB). He was the Lulista candidate who scored best in the first round simulations, with 31% of voting intentions, against 44% for Tarcísio.

The tendency is for Alckmin to actively participate in his ally’s campaign, as occurred in the last election, but not be a candidate in São Paulo, maintaining his position as vice-president on Lula’s ticket. The politician has already served four terms as governor when he was in the PSDB. Due to this fact, it tends to have a better entry among conservative voters and municipal managers than the PT.

Tebet intends to run for the Senate, changing his electoral domicile from Mato Grosso do Sul to São Paulo, while França and Marina Silva (Rede), Minister of the Environment, are alternatives to join Haddad as vice-president. In 2022, the post was occupied by Lúcia França, wife of the PSB minister, who now shows no enthusiasm for the idea after being passed over by Lula.

The PT’s strategy involves highlighting, in the São Paulo campaign, favorable economic data, such as the fall in the unemployment rate, the growth in average wage income and the control of inflation, in addition to measures initiated by the Executive approved in Congress, such as the exemption from Income Tax (IR) for those earning up to R$5,000 per month and tax reform.

But Haddad will also need to wear down the Tarcísio government to try to emerge victorious at the polls or, at least, guarantee a second round. Speeches during the 17th Federative Caravan, in the morning, set the tone for local issues that should be explored in the campaign. When addressing an audience of mayors, Lula criticized the governor’s conflictual relationship with São Paulo mayors.

Other themes, such as the privatization of Sabesp and the “paternity” dispute over works carried out in the state, but which rely on Union resources, should also mark the campaign in São Paulo.

Tarcísio, in the same way, has shown himself willing to accept the nationalization of the dispute and rehearses direct criticisms of Haddad’s economic management under the mantra that the minister “contracted a fiscal crisis” for the future by spending too much and “created a tax every 30 days”. On this point, the minister counters by saying that he reversed the logic of taxation by charging the richest, instead of the “base of the pyramid”.

Haddad intends to stay away from public agendas in the coming days before dedicating himself to the pre-campaign. At the Treasury, he will be replaced by executive secretary Dario Durigan.

Durigan has held the role since June 2023 and was therefore present in tough clashes with Congress, such as the increase in the IOF and the return of the provisional measure that limited the use of PIS/Cofins credits. Internally, his performance as number two in the department is praised on matters such as tax reform and the tax package. One of the new minister’s first challenges will be to help contain a truck drivers’ strike due to the rise in fuel prices.