IR and dividend exemption are in the focus of the market after elections in Congress

RB Investimentos strategist, Gustavo Cruz, understands that the market will pay special attention to four agendas in Congress, passed on yesterday’s election (1) who confirmed Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB) as mayor, and David Alcolumbre (Union Brazil-AP), from the Senate.

According to the strategist, the taxation of dividends and the exemption of income tax for salaries of up to R $ 5,000 – two guidelines of the second chapter of the tax reform, which will deal with income tax – are two of the topics to be closely monitored by investors. The list completes the oil exploration in the Amazon River Foz Basin and the negotiation of parliamentary amendments.

Campaign agenda

For Cruz, while taxation of profits and dividends tends to face some resistance, tax exemption from up to $ 5,000 must have a less embargoed path. The latter was a promise made in campaign not only by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, but also by the defeated candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, so that it is an agenda, in theory, both government and opposition. “It will be difficult to see a senator or deputy voting against,” comments the RB strategist.

The promise of expanding the income tax exemption range has generated stress in the market, as its compensation, besides being seen as insufficient, is more difficult to approve. In the accounts of RB Investments, the taxation of the largest income, as proposed by the government, would raise not much more than $ 10 billion -“forcing a lot”, $ 15 billion, says Cruz -when the exemption resignation is estimated in Market at R $ 45 billion. “It doesn’t close the account of a government that already has trouble delivering its fiscal goal,” says the RB strategist.

Oil exploration

The issue of equatorial margin, as the region is called at the mouth of Amazonas where Petrobras intends to explore oil, perhaps, according to Cruz, the agenda with greater understanding in the political class, including the new president of the Senate, David Alcohumbre. “President Lula wants, Congress wants, the governors who will benefit want, and David Alcolumbre, which is from Amapá, also wants. Therefore, the financial market understands that this will happen. ”

Since Petrobras is one of the largest dividend payers, the release of a new area for oil exploration would mean a potential for “interesting” appreciation, the strategist evaluates.

Already the parliamentary amendments, concludes Cruz, should continue to dictate the progress of the guidelines of interest of the government in Congress. “We may have a ministerial reform forward, but I understand that major tax measures will not be approved without amendments released throughout the year,” he comments.