IR exemption will cost R $ 27.7 billion in 2027 and R $ 29.68 billion in 2028, estimates farm estimates

The Ministry of Finance estimates that the bill that increases the income tax exemption will cost R $ 27.72 billion in 2027 and R $ 29.68 billion by 2028. The data are contained in a technical note prepared by the IRS on the impact of the legislative proposal.

To date, only the estimated fiscal waiver scheduled for 2026, of R $ 25.84 billion, had been released. The numbers consider the full exemption of income tax (IR) for those who receive up to $ 5,000, in addition to the partial discount for those who earn between $ 5,000 and $ 7,000.

To compensate for the loss of collection with the exemption, the government has proposed the minimum taxation of high rents, which will be progressively and will only begin to be applied for income above R $ 600 thousand per year. The measure will enable revenue expansion of R $ 29.49 billion to 2027 and from R $ 29.83 billion to 2028, in addition to R $ 25.22 billion to 2026 as already released by the government.

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Regarding the proposal of taxation of dividends sent abroad, the farm estimates a gain in the collection of R $ 9.69 billion to 2027 and from R $ 9.81 billion to 2028, in addition to R $ 8.9 billion to 2026.

In the note, Revenue technicians explain that the minimum tax impact estimated was based on the income data from individuals informed in the Income Tax (DIRPF and DIRF) declaration of 2022.

The methodology focused on three rent groups: taxable income subject to the progressive table, such as salaries, pensions and rents; Capital income with exclusive or definitive taxation, including financial investments, stocks with stock market shares, alienation of stocks outside the stock market and interest on equity; And finally, currently exempt capital income, such as profits and dividends, profits distributed by Simples Nacional companies, incorporation of profit reserves into capital (bonuses in stocks) and the portion exempt from income from rural activity.

According to the revenue, this restriction is due to the availability of data detailed enough to apply the minimum tax logic, as well as a limited deadline to make the estimates. “Nevertheless, it is evaluated that this restriction was not able to significantly impact the results of this study, given that the minimum tax dynamics affect subtitled rents that are very concentrated in higher income statements, which were properly included,” they considered.

The agency also clarified that, in the calculations, it was considered the possibility that, given the new taxation, taxpayers may change their behavior and adopt strategies to reduce the impact of tax increases. The technicians also recognize that, with the proposal presented, companies may decide to decrease or even stop distributing dividends to avoid increasing the tax burden, which would reduce shareholders’ gains. “As a result, it is estimated that there will be a reduction in the tax base generated by these income,” says the note.

According to Revenue, the value of income related to profit sharing (PLR), declared by taxpayers in 2022, was R $ 52.87 billion, while dividends and profits distributed to individuals residing in Brazil totaled R $ 614.94 billion. Already the remittances of profits sent abroad, declared by the companies, totaled R $ 166.78 billion. Finally, the value of profits distributed exclusively to members of Simples Nacional companies was R $ 225.77 billion in the same period.

In the note, Revenue technicians reiterated that the project presented by the government complies with the 2025 Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO), which specifies the way the provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) and states that proposals that institute revenue resignation must have a maximum validity of five years, present clear goals and objectives of public policy and indicate the body responsible for management, monitoring and evaluation of results.