Lula leads electoral scenarios, but there is demand for novelty in politics, says CNT/MDA

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads electoral scenarios tested by the CNT/MDA survey released on Monday, but the poll also points to a significant majority in favor of new names in politics.

In a first-round scenario for the Presidency of the Republic against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT) has 36.2%, against 29.7%of predecessor, the largest advantage ever verified for Lula since November 2024. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has been third, with 9.6%.

The president is also ahead of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). According to the survey, in this 1st round scenario, Lula would have 35.8%, and Tarcisio, 17.1%. In this scenario, Ciro Gomes has 11.6%.

In the third scenario raised, Lula leads with 37.1%, followed by Bolsonaro’s son and federal deputy, Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), with 14.6%, and Ciro Gomes, with 12.3%.

For a possible second round, six scenarios were tested. When your opponent is Bolsonaro, the survey registers Lula’s growth, which goes beyond its predecessor. The petista goes from 41% in June to 45.7% in September. Bolsonaro leaves 44% in the previous round to 37.7% now.

Bolsonaro is ineligible by two convictions of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and is being tried by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) for attempted coup and violent abolition of the rule of law, among other crimes.

When Lula’s opponent in a possible second round is the governor of São Paulo, the petista registers 43.9% against 37.6% of Tarcisio. In June, the two were in a technical draw, with Lula registering 41% and Tarcisio, 40%.

The scenario of a second round between Lula and Ciro Gomes shows the petista numerically ahead, but the two in a technical draw, with 39.4% to 36.0%.

In the other three scenarios, against the governors of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD), Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), and Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (Union), Lula leads, with percentages above 40%.

“Lula advances in voting intentions and records his best performance since the beginning of 1st round measurements. However, it is important to note that there is relevant demand for unnamed names or Jair Bolsonaro, which makes the dispute open and unpredictable,” said Marcelo Souza, director of the MDA Institute.

The survey points out, for example, that 79.6% of respondents advocate more “space for new names in politics”, while 15.6% advocate the maintenance of “older and known politicians”.

It also found that 34.4% of respondents prefer to vote for any candidate who is not linked to Lula or Bolsonaro. Another 32.5% prefer to vote for Lula or a candidate supported by him, while 28.1% prefer to vote for Bolsonaro or a name supported by him.

The survey was conducted between September 3 and 6, with 2,002 interviewees, in 140 municipalities of the 27 federative units. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for more or less.