Lula would have 48% against 39% of Tarcisio in a 2nd round scenario, says Datafolha

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, currently in his third term in charge of the country, has 48% of voting intentions in a possible second round of the 2026 presidential election against the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), which was 39%, according to Datafolha survey published by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, this Saturday.

Another 13% said they will vote in blank, null or none of the two. A total of 1% could not answer, the newspaper said, citing research data.

The survey was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday of this week and listened to 3,054 people 16 years or older in 172 cities. The margin of error is two percentage points.

Lula also leads against other names linked to former President Jair Bolsonaro, who in March became a defendant for attempted coup after unanimous decision of the 1st class of the Supreme Court.

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According to Datafolha, Lula has 50% of voting intentions against former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), which adds 38%; It reaches 51% against 34% of licensed deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) who left Brazil two weeks ago to live in the United States.

But, according to the survey, in a possible confrontation with Jair Bolsonaro, Lula has 49% of voting intentions to the second round compared to 40% of the former president who is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

In a scenario in which Lula decides not to return to the presidency for the fourth time, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad appears with 43% of second -round vote intentions against 37% of São Paulo’s governor ally of Bolsonaro.

In a possible repetition of the dispute between Haddad and Bolsonaro, which in 2018 was won by the second, the Finance Minister has 45% against 41% of voting intentions.