Most Brazilians say economics got worse under Lula, shows Datafolha

For the first time in the third term of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), most Brazilians say he realizes a worsening in the economy. This is what the new Datafolha survey shows, released on Saturday (5), pointing out that 55% of respondents evaluate that the economic scenario has deteriorated in recent months – up ten percentage points compared to the previous poll made in December.

The deterioration of perception occurs amid mixed economic indicators and increased inflation. The survey was conducted between April 1 and 3, 2025, three weeks after the disclosure that the country recorded an inflation of 1.31% in February – the largest for the month in more than two decades.

The survey listened to 3,054 people in 172 municipalities. The error margin is two percentage points, more or less.

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Negative perception grows among young and richer

The most significant change occurred among those who once considered the economy stable: this group fell from 31% to 23%. Those who saw improvement in the economic scenario remained stable, with 21% of the answers.

Among the most critical segments for the conduct of the economy, we highlight young people 16 to 24 years old (61%), who earns over ten minimum wages (60%) and those who studied until high school (60%).

Economic future also inspires caution

When the focus turns to the coming months, pessimism is still high. 36% believe the economy will get worse, compared to 28% in the previous survey. Another 32% do not expect changes, and only 29% maintain expectations of improvement.

Despite the advancement of negative vision, pessimism with inflation has lost strength: 62% say they expect high prices in the coming months, a five -point drop compared to December. The group of those who believe in falling inflation went from 9% to 14%.

Income and Employment: Disbelief persists

The purchasing power of salaries is also a cause for concern for respondents: 37% believe that the actual value of wages should fall – a slight improvement compared to 39% of the previous survey.

In relation to the labor market, popular perception contrasts with the positive data of IBGE and CAGED. 43% think unemployment will increase, 33% expect stability and only 21% believe in improvement.

The negative view happens although official indicators show resilience: the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in the quarter ended in February, but is still at historically low level. Caged, in turn, recorded the creation of 431 thousand formal vacancies in the same period – a record in the series started in 2020.