Negative Evaluation of Lula falls to 40.4%, shows CNT/MDA Survey

The negative assessment of the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva fell from 44% in February to 40.4% in June, according to CNT/MDA survey released on Tuesday (17). In the same period, positive assessment oscillated from 28.7% to 28.6%. The portion of those who consider regular management went from 26.3% to 29.6%.

All oscillations occurred within the survey error margin of 2.2 percentage points to more or less. The survey involved 2,002 in -person interviews and at home from June 11 to 15. The confidence level is 95%.

Positive evaluation includes two categories: great (8.3%) and good (20.3%). The negative encompasses bad (10.3%) and terrible (30.1%). In this month’s edition, 1.4% of respondents could not report their opinion, or did not respond.

Considering the regions of the country, the positive evaluation of the government is higher in the Northeast (41%), and lower in the Southeast (23%). The two regions also concentrate the smallest and the largest portion of people who have a negative opinion on the government, 26% and 47%, respectively. Positive assessment added 28% in the North/Midwest, and 24% in the South. In these regions, the negative opinion was 44% and 41% in this order.

The opinion favorable to the government is greater among people who have completed until elementary school (43%) than between those who completed high school (22%) and the superior (20%). The negative assessment between these strata is 33%, 44%and 53%, respectively.

Similarly, the portion of the population that earns less than two minimum wages and evaluates the government positively is 35%, against 23% of those who earn between two and five minimum wages, and those who earn more than five minimum wages. In these groups, the negative assessment is 33%, 44%and 53%in this order.

Among Catholics, 33% evaluate the government positively, and 36%, negatively. Among evangelicals, rates are, respectively, 18% and 53%.

In the separations by age groups, positive assessment is higher between those who are 60 or older (38%), and lower among those between 25 and 34 years old (24%). In all, 47% of those between 35 and 44 years old evaluate the government negatively, the highest rate. The smallest, 33%, was identified in the group of 16 to 24 years.

Personal performance is disapproved for 53%

The disapproval of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s performance was practically stable between February and June, ranging from 55.3% to 52.9%. Approval to the agent went from 40.5% to 40.7%, and the proportion of those who do not know or did not respond from 4.2% to 6.4%.

The survey also shows that population expectations for employment and income improved marginally between February and June. On the other hand, the survey identified a worsening in the area of ​​education, and a mostly negative perception in security.

The portion that expects an improvement in employment situation in the country went from 30% to 31% – within the margin of error, from 2.2 percentage points. The reason for those who see worse in this sector fell from 32% to 27%, oscillating more than the margin. In the same period, those who do not project change went from 36% to 39%.

Despite the oscillations, the expectation of improved employment continues in the second lowest level of the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, higher than in the February survey. The expectation of worsening is at the third highest level of the mandate, lower than in the previous survey and May 2024 (28%).

43% believe that Lula government is worse than Bolsonaro government

The proportion of the population that evaluates the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as worse than the management of former President Jair Bolsonaro oscillated negatively between February and June, from 45% to 43%. Those who consider the current administration best also fell from 36% to 34%. Those who evaluate both similarly went from 17% to 20%.

For 35.3%, most Lula decisions in government are bad. Another 37.0% consider that they are good and bad equally, and 24.5%, that most decisions are positive. To 40.2%, the country will have worsened at the end of the petista’s term, against 29.0% that they think it will be the same, and 27.6% that expect an improvement.

INSS Fraud: 33.6% evaluate that Lula government acted badly in the case

The performance of the government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) in the face of the scandal of undue discounts at the National Institute of Social Security (INSS) is poorly evaluated by 33.6% of Brazilians. Another 23.8%estimate that driving was positive and 27.2%, which was neither positive nor negative. In question about the main responsible for the fraud, 19.4%point out the federal government, behind public servants and INSS managers involved (23.6%) and those who blame “all”, including unions and the previous government (25.5%). Individually, unions are responsible for 10% and the management of former President Jair Bolsonaro for 7.8%.

In addition, four out of ten Brazilians consider that the increase in the IOF announced by the government was a bad measure, because taxes in Brazil are already very high. All 40.7% said they heard of IOF discharge, and consider the measure bad. Only 6.1% said they considered positive action. Another 49.8% did not hear about the measures.

According to the survey, 81.7% consider it to pay more than it would be fair, against only 7.9% that say they pay the right amount, and 6.7% who evaluate pay less than it would be correct. More than half of the population, or 52.5%, assesses that the return of taxes, in terms of public services, is bad or very bad. To 32.9%, it is regular; And for 12.0%, it is very good or good.

Tarcísio touches the petista in a 2nd round simulation of 2026

The CNT/MDA survey shows a technical draw scenario between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL)-who is ineligible by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE)-both in the first and second round of the 2026 presidential race. In the main scenario, the retired captain appears with 31.7% of the intentions, compared to 31.1% of the petista.

In the eventual second round between the two, Bolsonaro has 43.9% against 41.4% of the petista, difference within the margin of error of two percentage points.

Other scenarios of the first round show Lula’s advantage in the absence of the former president. Against Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), for example, the president leads with 30.5%, while the governor of São Paulo marks 18.3%. In another configuration, Lula adds 31.6%, with Ciro Gomes (PDT) reaching 14.1%and licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), 13.6%.

The dispute is also fragmented into other simulations. In a scenario with Ciro, Tarcisio and Fernando Haddad (PT), the pedestrian leads with 19.5%, followed by Tarcisio (18%) and Haddad (16.4%). Lula also appears ahead in confrontation with Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 31.2% to 20.4%. In a scenario without the petista, Michelle has 19.8%, Ciro appears with 19.1%and Haddad, 16.9%.

In addition to the clash between Lula and Bolsonaro, the survey indicates balance in another possible second round: Lula has 41.1% against 40.4% of Tarcisio. Already Bolsonaro would beat Fernando Haddad by 43.9% to 38.4%, and Tarcisio would have 39% against 37% of Haddad.

Former pedestrian minister ranges from 10% to 20%, reaching his peak when Lula and Bolsonaro do not enter the dispute. Governors Ratinho Jr. (Paraná), Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás) and Romeu Zema (Minas Gerais) vary between 5% and 10% scenario in a scenario.

In the spontaneous survey, the president comes with 22.5% and the retired captain appears with 21.3%. Tarcisio has 2.1%. Already 39.8% claim to be undecided.

According to a survey, about two-thirds of the population prefers to vote for former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) or a candidate supported by two in 2026. The remaining third prefers a candidate who is not linked to either. Named Bolsonaro or a candidate supported by him have 32.6% preference. Next, Lula or a petista candidate (30.9%) and an independent (30.6%) appear.

46% think Bolsonaro will be acquitted for attempted coup

Although most Brazilians believe that there was an attempted coup in Brazil, the expectation of the legal outcome of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is still divided. For 46.1% of respondents, the former president will be acquitted, compared to 39.9% who say they believe he will be convicted. Already 14% did not know or preferred not to answer. The perception that there was an attempt to blow is majority: 48.1% say yes, against 39.2% they deny. Asked about Bolsonaro’s role in the episodes, 40.4% say he was responsible, and 37.6% point him as the main responsible; 17.6% say they believe that the retired captain is not involved.