Nikolas leads dispute for the MG government in all scenarios

Federal Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL) leads all scenarios tested for the government of Minas Gerais in the survey released on Wednesday (18) by the Futura Intelligence Institute.

The survey points out that if the election were today, Nikolas would win with opponents such as Alexandre Kalil (PSD), Alexandre Silveira (PSD) and Aécio Neves (PSDB), and would draw technically with Senator Cleitinho (Republicans) in a possible direct dispute.

In the first round, the pocket parliamentarian appears between 27.2% and 39.7% of voting intentions, depending on the scenario. Its best performance is when Cleitinho is not included, suggesting that the two share part of the electorate. The senator, in turn, oscillates between 17.9% and 21.4%, consolidating the second position and expanding his space as a competitive name.

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Other names that stand out are Aécio Neves, with up to 11.6%, and the mayor of Contagem, Marília Campos (PT), which reaches 11.8%. The former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Alexandre Kalil, appears up to 11.6%, while Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco and Minister Alexandre Silveira record more modest numbers.

In the second round scenarios, Nikolas overcomes all opponents tested – except for a technical draw with Cleitinho, which marks 36.2% against 31.3%.

Cleitinho, in turn, leads all the scenarios in which Nikolas is absent, with advantage over Kalil, Aécio and Silveira. Kalil appears with performance superior to Silveira in direct clashes.

The survey also shows significant percentage of undecided, white and null, ranging from 9% to 25%, which can affect the dynamics of the dispute as the election approaches. The current governor, Romeu Zema (Novo), is in his second term and, therefore, cannot compete for reelection.

The survey was conducted between May 22 and June 5, with 1,200 telephone interviews (CATI), and has a margin of 2.8 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.