Nobel Peace Prize 2024 and the Doomsday Clock: the nuclear alert

London – The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Nihon Hidankyo organization, which brings together the Hibakusha, survivors of the atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, reinforces the warnings about nuclear risk made by the scientists responsible for the Doomsday Clock, which in 2024 remained just 90 seconds from midnight, the closest it has ever been to the symbolic end of the world.

Created in 1947 by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which had Albert Einstein among its founders, the End of the World Clock is a way of drawing the attention of the press and society to the various risks facing the planet – but its origin was nuclear risk , focus of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024.

The president of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Jrgen Watne Frydnes, highlighted the fundamental role of the Japanese organization in its tireless fight for a world free of nuclear weapons and in demonstrating, through testimonies, the horror caused by these weapons.

Frydnes stressed that “nuclear weapons must never be used again”, in a message that resonates strongly in a world where nuclear tensions are again on the rise, as warned by the scientists who marked the time of the Doomsday Clock in January this year.

Understand the threats mapped by the Doomsday Clock

In 1945, Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and scientists at the University of Chicago who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project created the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which two years later launched the Doomsday Clock to make the message of nuclear threat more convincing in the eyes of the public.

They used the images of the apocalypse represented by the midnight hour and the countdown associated with the explosion of a nuclear bomb as elements to symbolize the risks to humanity and the planet, a successful scientific dissemination strategy that continues to this day, with news about the new hour taking over the headlines seconds after it was released.

The first hour of the Doomsday Clock represented only concern about the nuclear bomb. Over the years, other threats to the future of the planet and humanity have been incorporated, but the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize is a sign that it has never been overcome.

Nobel Peace Prize in line with nuclear concerns of the Doomsday Clock

After a year marked by record heat, with two wars involving nuclear powers and artificial intelligence amplifying disinformation, the hands of the Doomsday Clock continued in 2024 with the symbolic hour of doomsday at 90 seconds to the “midnight of the apocalypse” .

This year, the Committee highlighted the worrying scenario in which nuclear powers are “modernizing and strengthening their arsenals”, while new countries appear to be seeking to acquire nuclear weapons and the use of these weapons is once again being considered in ongoing wars.

According to scientists, several global threats cast “ominous shadows” that determined the decision on the symbolic time of the clock in 2024, including:

the Russia-Ukraine war and the deterioration of nuclear arms reduction agreements
the climate crisis and the official designation of 2023 as the hottest year on record
the increasing sophistication of genetic engineering technologies
the dramatic advancement of generative AI, which could amplify disinformation and corrupt the global information environment, making it more difficult to resolve the greatest existential challenges.

Rachel Bronson, PhD, president and CEO of the Bulletin, said:

“Make no mistake: keeping the clock from 90 seconds to midnight is not an indication that the world is stable. Quite the opposite. It is urgent for governments and communities around the world to act.

And the Bulletin remains hopeful – and inspired – to see younger generations leading the charge.”

The Doomsday Clock declaration highlights the nuclear threat that motivated the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize:

“Sinister trends continue to point the world toward global catastrophe. The war in Ukraine and increasing dependence on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation.

China, Russia and the United States are spending enormous sums to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals, increasing the danger of nuclear war through failures or miscalculations.

In 2023, the Earth experienced the hottest year on record. Massive floods, wildfires and other climate-related disasters have affected millions of people around the world.

At the same time, rapid and worrying developments in life sciences and other disruptive technologies have accelerated, while governments have made only feeble efforts to control them. “

Understand the other threats mapped by the Doomsday Clock

A Sinister Perspective on Climate Change

In 2023, the world entered uncharted territory as it experienced the hottest year on record and global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise. Global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures broke records, and Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest daily extent since the advent of satellite data.
The world is already at risk of exceeding a target of the Paris climate agreement – a temperature increase of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – due to insufficient commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the insufficient implementation of commitments already made.
The world invested a record $1.7 billion in clean energy in 2023, and countries representing half of the world’s gross domestic product have committed to tripling their renewable energy capacity by 2030.
However, investments in fossil fuels of almost 1 billion dollars were made. Current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to avoid the dangerous human and economic impacts of climate change, which disproportionately affect the world’s poorest people.

Evolution of biological threats

The revolution in biological sciences and associated technologies has continued to expand over the past year, including, in particular, the increasing sophistication and efficiency of genetic engineering technologies.
We highlight an issue of particular concern: the convergence of emerging artificial intelligence tools and biological technologies could radically empower individuals to misuse biology.
In October, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order on “Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AI” that calls for protecting “against the risks of using AI to engineer hazardous biological materials by developing strong new standards for screening biological synthesis”. Although a useful measure, the order is not legally binding.
The concern is that large language models will enable individuals who would otherwise not have sufficient knowledge to identify, acquire, and implement biological agents that would harm large numbers of humans, animals, plants, and other elements of the environment.
Last year’s reinvigorated efforts in the United States to review and strengthen oversight of risky life sciences research are helpful, but much more is needed.

The dangers of AI

AI is a paradigmatic disruptive technology and recent efforts in global AI governance must be expanded.
AI has great potential to amplify disinformation and corrupt the information environment necessary to solve major global problems and on which democracy depends.
AI-enabled disinformation efforts could be a factor preventing the world from effectively addressing nuclear risks, pandemics and climate change.
Military uses of AI are accelerating. Extensive use of AI is already occurring in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, simulation and training. Of particular concern are lethal autonomous weapons, which identify and destroy targets without human intervention.
Decisions to put AI in control of important physical systems – in particular, nuclear weapons – could, in fact, pose a direct existential threat to humanity.
Fortunately, many countries recognize the importance of regulating AI and are taking steps to reduce the potential for harm.
But these are just small steps; much more must be done to institute effective rules and standards despite the challenges.

Watch the video of the presentation.