Nuclear Agreement by a thread: Understand what is at stake after bombing in Iran

The intended approach between Israel and the Arab world, which began during Trump’s term in the form of Abraham’s agreements, should be frozen. But the conduct of Israeli war in the Gaza Strip had already taken care of the diplomatic climate seriously.

In turn, only two years ago Tehran and Riyadh have become approached under Chinese mediation after years of radical hostility. Since then, bilateral relations have intensified, there were even plans for military cooperation and joint maneuvers. The latest approach signal was in April, when Saudi Defense Minister Khalid Bin Salman – brother of heir prince Mohammed bin Salman – traveled to the Iranian capital, where he also met leader Khamenei.

Like the other Arab states of the region, Saudi Arabia does not want to be implicated in the Israeli-Roranda conflict, much less with the US being involved. Given the superiority of its opponent, Iran may appeal to asymmetrical war tactics, for example obstructing oil extraction and transportation.

In 2019, attacks with drones by Houthis Iemenites temporarily interrupted the transport of Saudi oil, and in the following years of oil installations in the country were also the target of Yemen offensive. Thus, it is no surprise that the Israeli offensive have generated a strong discharge of oil prices.

Questionable is whether with these attacks Israel will reach its officially stated goal: to prevent the development of an Iranian atomic bomb. At the moment, most experts doubt it is possible to destroy the country’s nuclear program by military means. On the other hand, current bombings will be able to motivate the Iran, now, betting on nuclear weaponry. This would possibly result in an arms race in the Middle East – which is not in anyone’s interest.