Operation against Bolsonaro strengthens Tarcisio and harms conversation with the US

The name of Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) to represent the right in the 2026 presidential elections strengthened after the Federal Police operation against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), held on Friday (18) based on warrants, issued by the Supreme Court (STF). It is as evaluated Cristiano Noronha, vice president of Arko Advice, a conjuncture analysis company and strategy of government relations based in Brasilia.

Although Bolsonaro insists on the idea of running for the presidency in 2026, Noronha understands that Friday’s operation aggravates the former president’s legal obstacles. “The possibility of competing is less and less,” he says.

With the increasing risk of conviction in the trial of scammer acts of January 8, 2023, scheduled for this semester in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the space for a new name in the right leadership is growing. “This is causing things to be taught in the direction of Tarcisio for candidacy for president,” said Noronha, referring to Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), current governor of Sao Paulo and former minister of infrastructure in the Bolsonaro government.

Union between opposition

The immediate effect caused by the operation against Bolsonaro was the rapid reaction between allies and opposition parliamentarians. The installation of electronic anklet and other precautionary measures, determined by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, were classified as “exaggerated” by sectors of the right, according to the evaluation of Cristiano Noronha, vice president of Arko Advice.

“We have seen some reactions, the allies showed solidarity. The right was dividing and this episode this Friday seems to united them. The leader of the front of Agro even suggested the suspension of Congress recess,” said Noronha.

Negotiation between Brazil and the US

For Noronha, the operation has potential economic impact: affect negotiations with the US. “The fear is that this Friday’s episode can contaminate and make it even more difficult to dialogue between Brazil and the US.”

Future of Eduardo Bolsonaro uncertainty

Another reflection of this Friday’s operation is on Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), federal deputy and son of the former president. Although he is out of Brazil, Noronha says that if he was in the country, he would probably also have been the target of legal measures.

“The operation shows that his legal situation is complicated, and would not surprise if he became a defendant,” he said. An eventual conviction would leave Eduardo ineligible and remove his name from the succession chess. “He begins to have an uncertain legal future,” said the analyst.

Increased tension between Congress and STF

Noronha also points out that the operation against Bolsonaro adds to other recent STF decisions that have generated discomfort in the National Congress – among them, the measure understood as “monocratic” of Minister Alexandre de Moraes on the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations).

According to him, discontent can reopen discussions about the role of the supreme and initiatives aimed at restricting individual decisions of his ministers. “The operation, added to the decision on the IOF, brought another dissatisfaction of the House and Senate in relation to the Supreme Court,” he said.

Are there parallels between Lula 2018 and Bolsonaro from 2025?

Despite the important differences between the cases, Noronha sees parallel between Bolsonaro’s situation now and Lula’s in 2018, when the petista was prevented from running for the presidency because of his conviction in the Lava Jato.

“In 2018, Lula insisted on his candidacy and then had to appoint the name. Bolsonaro is insisting on his candidacy and must have to point a name,” said the analyst. The difference, he said, is that “Bolsonaro has support and solidarity from the US government,” unlike Lula’s case – when the United States even opened investigations against Petrobras.