Polarization puts pressure on and reignites debate on the third way in the 2026 elections

The announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) pre-candidacy for the Presidency consolidated, at least for now, the prospect that the 2026 dispute will again head towards a direct confrontation between PT and Bolsonarism.

By treating his entry into the race as irreversible and assuming the position of his father’s political heir, the senator reinforced the polarization with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and rekindled, behind the political and business scenes, the discussion about the viability of a third way capable of breaking this dominant axis.

A Genial/Quaest survey released in December showed that 24% of the electorate prefer a candidate who is not associated with either Lula or Jair Bolsonaro. The data reinforces the perception, on the part of the business community and the center, that there is a relevant space outside the traditional hubs, but it also highlights the challenge of converting this diffuse preference into a competitive candidacy.

The announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy accelerated the coordination. By treating his entry into the dispute as irreversible, the senator signaled that the election tends to renew the direct clash between Lulism and Bolsonarism.

The market’s reaction was immediate: on the day of the announcement, the Ibovespa fell 4.31%, the biggest daily drop since 2021, while the dollar advanced 2.34%, reflecting the increased perception of political risk and the fear of a fourth term for Lula.

Preferred and resistant

In the center-right camp, the most cited name continues to be that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). Preferred by sectors in the center, he is seen as the candidate most prepared to face Lula, especially due to his history of dialogue with the market and management in São Paulo.

Even so, Tarcísio has reiterated that he does not intend to run for President in 2026, only admitting the hypothesis of multiple candidacies on the right.

The Quaest survey itself from December 16th illustrates the dilemma. In the survey, Lula appears with 41% of voting intentions in the first round, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 23%, while Tarcísio appears further behind, with 10%.

The performance inferior to that of the Bolsonarist senator reinforced, among businesspeople and party leaders, the assessment that the São Paulo governor would have difficulty in becoming viable without a clear break with Bolsonarism.

PSDB, centrão and new bets

At the same time, the PSDB is trying to reposition itself. Recently sworn in as party president, deputy Aécio Neves states that he intends to organize a movement around a center-right name.

The speech seeks to minimize the loss of relevance of the acronym in recent years, marked by the reduction of the bench and the failure of the merger with Podemos. Internally, however, there is recognition that the party has lost its identity and national reach.

In the center, the tone also changed. The leader of the PP in the Chamber, deputy Doutor Luizinho (RJ), stated that the party now feels free to build a non-Bolsonaro candidacy, signaling a pragmatic distance from the Bolsonaro family.

At the same time, the creation of Missão, a party linked to the MBL, adds a new element to the board, with the promise of a right-wing opposition to Bolsonarism in 2026.

Ratinho Junior gains space

These discussions took shape, little by little, among those who already admit that Tarcísio could stay in São Paulo and run for a peaceful re-election.

The group’s predominant diagnosis is that Lula tends to enter the dispute strengthened, driven by the expansion of social programs and the diplomatic crisis with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, which reinforced the government’s discourse of national sovereignty and contributed to cooling inflation.

In this context, the name most cited as a viable alternative is that of the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD). The assessment is that he would have greater capacity to move between different political fields and present himself as a less polarizing option.

In this context, the name of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União), also arises and, more cautiously, the possibility of an outsider, although political scientists consider it unlikely that a name outside institutional politics will be viable.

Eye on 2030

Despite the divergences, the idea that the articulation of a centrist candidacy needs to begin immediately gained strength among businesspeople.

Even though the 2026 dispute is seen as difficult, the movement is treated as strategic to pave the way for 2030, when the scenario may be less dominated by the polarization between Lula and Bolsonarism.

For now, the challenge of the third way remains the same: transforming a diffuse desire of the electorate into a clear political project, with defined leadership, unified discourse and the ability to confront two fields already consolidated in the Brazilian political imagination.