Risk Map: Flávio’s crisis exposes the right’s dependence on Bolsonaro?

The crisis involving senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and former banker Daniel Vorcaro opened a discussion that until a few weeks ago seemed closed within the right. After all, is there a name today capable of politically replacing the heir chosen by Jair Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential race?

Behind the scenes of the PL, the question began to circulate with more intensity after the senator’s fall in the polls and the wear and tear caused by the release of audios involving Daniel Vorcaro.

However, during the Risk Map, the government’s policy program, InfoMoneyexperts pointed out that the episode exposes less the existence of an immediate replacement and more the dependence of the conservative camp on Jair Bolsonaro’s political strength.

“Flávio was never the majority choice, number one on the right, he was the possible choice,” said Renato Dolci, data director at Timelens. According to him, Michelle Bolsonaro has always been involved in the dispute, but there are internal complexities in the party and in the family itself that make it difficult to change course at this time.

The assessment is that Flávio became the main name on the right not because he was the most competitive candidate in the polls at the beginning, but because he was chosen by Jair Bolsonaro. Vitor Scalet, political analyst at XP, recalled that, when the senator was launched, other names appeared in an apparently better position against Lula.

“At that moment, Flávio, in the average poll, lost to Lula in the second round by around nine points. Michelle lost by around six and Tarcísio by around two, three points. And the one who decided was Jair Bolsonaro”, stated Scalet.

For him, Flávio’s subsequent evolution in the polls showed the former president’s ability to consolidate right-wing votes around a name chosen by him. Throughout December, January and February, the senator reduced the distance to Lula until reaching a scenario of a technical tie in part of the surveys.

“This shows the strength of the centrality of Jair’s figure,” said Scalet. “Jair went there and chose Flávio, who lost nine. He trusted in his strength to take those votes and he did.”

This reasoning helps to explain why, even after the drop in polls caused by the Master case, analysts still see it as difficult for the right to replace Flávio. The senator lost points, but remains the name with the greatest capacity to inherit the Bolsonarist electorate and face Lula in a national dispute.

“He dropped six points, but he is by far the candidate with the most capacity on the right to beat Lula, even with the drop,” stated Dolci.

The problem, according to the political scientist, is structural. The left organized around Lula. The right, in turn, organized itself around Bolsonaro, but the name that should contest the election is not the former president himself. This makes any Flávio crisis also a crisis about Bolsonarism’s ability to transfer leadership.

“The crisis shows some of this dependence on Bolsonarism,” stated Dolci. “The left is not arguing because it only has one name. Not here, it has several names, and more than having several names, the main name is not the name of this candidacy.”

In this scenario, Michelle Bolsonaro, Tarcísio de Freitas and other names on the right could return to the debate, but still without enough strength to quickly reorganize the conservative field.

For experts, Flávio’s candidacy has entered a more vulnerable phase, but continues to be, in the current picture, the main electoral path of Bolsonarism.

The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.