Risk Map: How serial leaks hinder the reaction of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign

The portal strategy The Intercept Brazil of releasing new excerpts and information from the case involving the financing of the film “Dark Horse”, which tells the political trajectory of former president Jair Bolsonaro, began to produce a relevant political effect on the pre-campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

The increasing difficulty of organizing a consistent reaction within Bolsonarism has been seen in recent days among close allies and supporters of the former president and senator.

The assessment carried out by experts in the Risk Map, a policy program for the InfoMoneythe problem for the senator was no longer just the content of the audios involving Daniel, Vorcaro, but also the exhaustion of the inability to close the matter and regain control of the narrative.

“THE Intercept has this habit of releasing elements every week”, said political scientist Renato Dolci, data director at Timelens.

According to him, the dynamic of fragmented disclosure creates a permanent environment of expectation and political insecurity. “This greatly hinders the campaign’s ability to respond,” he said.

The assessment is that, without knowing whether there are still new audios, documents or messages to be released, Flávio’s allies avoid building a definitive defense — for fear of being denied a few days later.

Campaign lost visibility

Behind the scenes of the PL, the main concern became precisely the lack of predictability about the case. The senator’s allies report difficulty in defining a communication strategy because each new publication changes the political environment and reopens the debate on social media.

“We support one thing, come a day later and something different happens”, said Renato Dutto when describing the perception of members of the right.

According to him, this helps to explain the more cautious behavior of Bolsonarian influencers and parliamentarians on the networks. “What they are saying is: we need to know if there is anything else,” he said.

The practical consequence was a slowdown in the digital reaction of Bolsonarism, something considered rare in crises involving the right.

Right avoids emphatic defense

The program participants also pointed out that the lack of a stronger defense also stems from the nature of the material disclosed. Unlike other political crises, this time the wear and tear does not depend solely on journalistic interpretation or narrative dispute. The audios attributed to Flávio Bolsonaro make it difficult to construct a response based exclusively on political denial.

“It wasn’t someone who told me. There is an audio that is Flávio himself speaking”, stated Dolci.

For the political scientist, this produces more insecurity among allies because it reduces space for questions about authenticity or manipulation of content.

Furthermore, the case directly touches on a historically sensitive area for Bolsonarism, which is the anti-corruption discourse. “The right has taken up this agenda with great emphasis in recent years,” said the expert.

Prolonged crisis increases wear and tear

According to members of the political market, the main risk for Flávio Bolsonaro is no longer a single explosive episode and is now prolonged wear and tear. Analysts assess that continuous crises tend to produce effects that are more difficult to neutralize electorally because they prevent the resumption of the campaign’s positive agenda.

“What is surprising is how long this reorganization is taking,” said XP political analyst, Vitor Scalet.

According to him, Flávio’s campaign had managed to get through the first months of the presidential pre-dispute without needing to present detailed proposals or respond to deeper stress.

Now, however, the Master case has started to consume political energy, communication and internal articulation of Bolsonarism.

The perception among analysts is that the campaign’s ability to react will directly depend on two factors: whether new materials will be released and whether the PL will be able to construct a single narrative to defend the senator without risking being contradicted by the next leaks.

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