Risk Map: meeting with Trump helped Flávio change focus, but does not resolve the challenge

After weeks dominated by developments involving the leak of audio between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and Daniel Vorcaro about the financing of the film that tells the story of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the PL pre-candidate’s trip to the United States changed the discussion surrounding the senator’s candidacy agenda.

During the Risk Map, the policy program of the Infomoneythe conclusion of analysts was that the main gain from the visit to the White House was not necessarily the photograph alongside American President Donald Trump, but the possibility of temporarily removing the focus from an issue that had been causing strain on the campaign and repositioning it on a terrain more favorable to Bolsonarism.

“The main discussion that took place after Flávio’s visit to Trump was more in the direction of a change of agenda, in fact, in relation to what was guided about Flávio in the past”, stated Paulo Gama, head of political analysis at XP.

According to him, the trip allowed the campaign to introduce a new topic into the public debate precisely when discussions about the audios involving Daniel Vorcaro continued to wear on the senator.

The movement occurred at a time when electoral polls began to record a significant drop for Flávio in voting intentions and an increase in the advantage of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in second round scenarios.

Public safety returns to the center

The campaign’s main skill, according to program participants, was to use the visit to put public safety back at the center of the political conversation.

Upon leaving the meeting with Trump, Flávio focused his statements on topics related to the fight against organized crime, PCC and Red Command, leaving economic or diplomatic discussions in the background.

In Paulo Gama’s assessment, the change was strategic because it moved the debate from a defensive topic to an issue historically associated with Bolsonarism.

“The last relationship that he (Flávio Bolsonaro) had had, or that the group had had with Trump, had been a relationship linked to the discussion about tariffs, which was used by Lula as a ladder to boost his popularity. Now he brings up an issue in which the left and Lula do not do well with the electorate.”

The result was a clear attempt to reconstruct the campaign narrative based on an agenda considered more comfortable.

“Flávio puts this topic on the table, turns the page on what was being discussed before and manages to bring this agenda as a positive point for him.”

The photo mobilizes, but it has limits

Political scientist Graziella Testa assesses that the meeting has the potential to mobilize Bolsonarist activism, but warns that its electoral reach may be more limited than it appears.

“Mobilizing militancy is no small feat, because mobilizing militancy is not just preaching to the converted. It is also seeking undecided votes through militancy itself and this can have a positive impact for them.”

At the same time, she highlights that the campaign chose to emphasize a theme that produces different responses between groups in the electorate.

“One of the great flanks of the left, of Lula and of the PT governments in general, is the issue of public security. We know that it is one of the main themes that mobilize the right”, he stated.

However, according to the UFPR professor, there is a political risk embedded in this strategy.

“Although there is a sector of the population very concerned about public security, focusing this analysis on expanding the right to gun ownership and other issues aimed at ordinary citizens having a gun has a positive impact on men, but has a negative impact on women, even right-wing women, conservative women and evangelical women.”

The challenge continues

For Graziella, the central question is not whether the photo with Trump pleased the Bolsonarist base, but whether it helps Flávio to advance among voters who have not yet chosen a candidate.

The professor remembers that the senator had been trying to build an image less associated with the hard core of Bolsonarism and closer to the political center.

“It was an attempt that Flávio made at first, even when he removed Bolsonaro from his campaign name, an attempt to denote an approach to the center,” he stated.

In her view, the choice to emphasize public safety during the visit to the United States may have strengthened identification with the traditional base, but it also runs the risk of hindering this expansion.

“I think he distances himself a little from the image he tried to get closer to. So what I highlight is the willingness of each of them to talk and what this generates in terms of predictability about an eventual government.”

In the short term, the trip fulfilled the objective of changing the political agenda. It remains to be seen whether the change of subject will be enough to recover the voters lost since the beginning of the Banco Master crisis.