“Social Security is a bomb that won’t stop exploding,” says TCU President

The President of the Federal Court of Audit (TCU), Rêgo’s Vital Minister, said that Social Security represents a “bomb that will not stop exploding.” According to him, the social security system is under strong pressure due to demographic changes, with the aging of the population and the fall of the birth rate in Brazil.

According to the government projection made in 2023, the deficit of the National Institute of Social Security (INSS) should more than double by 2060 and quadruple by 2100. The breakthrough of social security is aggravated by the policy of salary adjustments above inflation and the decrease in relationship between taxpayers and beneficiaries.

Crescent deficit

In an interview with G1Vital do Rêgo stressed that, ten years ago, the proportion was five workers for each social security beneficiary. Currently, this number has dropped to 1.7, compromising the sustainability of the system. “We have an absolutely debilitated patient and so far I have no medicine for this condition,” he said.

National Treasury data show that, only with the payment of INSS pensions and pensions, about R $ 960 billion were spent in 2024. The forecast for this year is that the amount exceeds R $ 1 trillion, consolidating this expense as the largest expense of the federal government.

The INSS gap in 2024 totaled R $ 297 billion, a stable value compared to 2023, when the deficit was R $ 306.2 billion. In addition, the public servant and military welfare system registered an additional R $ 112.2 billion deficit, raising the total welfare deficit to R $ 410 billion.

Measures to contain the breach

To avoid a financial collapse, Vital do Rêgo advocates the adoption of measures to curb fraud and reduce improper spending. “This does not need constitutional reform. The country is moving towards a scenario where, in the medium term, retirement will become a challenge, ”warned the minister.

In 2023, the government implemented a comb of temporary benefits, such as sick pay, reviewing about 800,000 processes to verify its regularity. Vital do Rêgo also suggested the reclassification of some expenses, such as rural pension and the benefits of the military, claiming that the social security should be considered social assistance, as beneficiaries do not contribute to the system.

Changes for the military

At the end of 2023, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s economic team (PT) sent to Congress a bill that establishes a minimum age of 55 years for retirement of the military, which currently occurs after 35 years of service, without defined age. The text is still awaiting voting and provides for other changes in the rules of inactivity of the Armed Forces.