Tarcísio leads all scenarios and scores up to 49% in the dispute in SP, according to research

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), leads all scenarios in the dispute for re-election in the state, according to the most recent RealTime Big Data survey, released this Monday (9).

Tarcísio leads the voting intention both in the spontaneous modality and in the stimulated scenarios, possible opponents such as Fernando Haddad (PT), Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), Simone Tebet (MDB) and Kim Kataguri (Missão).

In the spontaneous vote, Tarcísio received 16% of the votes, while Fernando Haddad, the second most cited, received 5%. Geraldo Alckmin, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), Kim Kataguri, Simone Tebet and Marcio França hold 1% of voting intentions. More than half of voters (65%) were unable to answer who they would vote for governor this year.

1st scenario

In the first stimulated scenario, Tarcísio emerges with 47% of voting intentions compared to 31% for Haddad. Next, Kim Kataguri appears with 8%, Paulo Serra (PSDB) with 7%.

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 47%
• Fernando Haddad (PT): 31%
• Kim Kataguiri (Mission): 8%
• Paulo Serra (PSDB): 7%
• Null/Blank: 4%
• NS/NR: 3%

2nd scenario

In a scenario against Alckmin, the governor of São Paulo leads the dispute by 44% compared to 33% for the vice-governor of the Republic. Kataguri and Serra both have 8% of the votes.

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 44%
• Geraldo Alckmin (PSB): 33%
• Kim Kataguiri (Mission): 8%
• Paulo Serra (PSDB): 8%
• Null/Blank: 4%
• NS/NR: 3%

3rd scenario

The most profitable scenario for Tarcísio is a possible fight against Simone Tebet. In this projection, the Republican holds 49% of the valid votes against 21% for the Minister of Planning and Budget. Next, Kataguri appears with 9% and Serra with 5%.

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 49%
• Simone Tebet (MDB): 21%
• Kim Kataguiri (Mission): 10%
• Paulo Serra (PSDB): 9%
• Null/Blank: 5%
• NS/NR: 6%

4th scenario

In the dispute against Márcio França, the current governor also appears as the best placed with 48% compared to 23% for the Minister of Entrepreneurship. In this projection, Kataguri has 10% of the votes and Serra 8%.

• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 48%
• Márcio França (PSB): 23%
• Kim Kataguiri (Mission): 10%
• Paulo Serra (PSDB): 8%
• Null/Blank: 5%
• NS/NR: 6%

Voter profile

The governor’s performance is stronger among men, a segment that reaches up to 50% of voting intentions in one of the scenarios. Among voters over 60, votes jump to 55%.

Tarcísio is also the favorite for voters with an income above five minimum wages, maintaining 56% of the electorate. The advantage decreases depending on the salary range and Fernando Haddad becomes the favorite, with 40% of intentions, among those who receive up to 2 minimum wages.

The RealTime Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 voters between March 6th and 7th. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number SP-00705/2026.